Trend Following - Week in Review - November 14, 2025

“Silent Surface, Surging Currents”

This Week in Trend – 14 November 2025

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the shifting dynamics of global futures markets and the evolving landscape of systematic trend following.

This edition reflects conditions through the close of US markets on Friday 14 November 2025. The second week of November looked calm on the surface, with major equity indices holding near highs and volatility only edging higher. Underneath that quiet picture, real assets and crypto moved sharply, with strong surges in energy, metals and selected grains set against heavy losses in soft commodities and digital assets.

The SG Trend Index moved firmly back into positive territory, signalling that October’s ignition phase has not faded but has instead rotated into a new mix of leaders and laggards. Earlier in the week the TTU Trend Barometer lifted into supportive territory near 64 percent before fading into Friday’s neutral close.

What still looks like a stable surface in headline indices now hides powerful currents beneath. Cross asset correlations remain loose, yet the underlying structure has shifted from friction to opportunity, with real asset trends doing the heavy lifting while crypto and softs absorb the stress. The market is beginning to reward persistence again, even if the path is uneven.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month to date (as of Nov 13): +1.99%
• Year to date: +1.08%
• Previous week: −0.49% MTD | −1.37% YTD

The SG Trend Index staged a notable recovery in the second week of November, lifting both month to date and year to date returns back into positive territory. Strength in energy, precious metals and parts of the grain complex outweighed continued pressure in soft commodities and crypto. The move confirms that October’s improvement in trend structure has not been fully unwound, it has simply migrated toward different markets.

After flirting with renewed drawdown last week, the index now reflects a market where directional conviction is returning in real assets while risk assets remain more unstable. Systems are finding clearer payoff in commodity and rate trends, and the transition from early month fragmentation to a stronger environment is becoming visible in the headline numbers.

The SG Trend Index captures realised trend following performance, while the TTU Trend Barometer measures the current strength of trends across the futures universe.

TTU Trend Barometer

• Current reading: 50 percent – Neutral
• Previous reading: 48 percent
• 10 day rate of change: Neutral

Trend strength improved early in the week but faded into Friday’s close. The TTU Trend Barometer rose modestly from 48 to 50 percent, landing squarely in neutral territory. This shift reflects a market where strong commodity trends remain in place, but late week reversals in softs, crypto and parts of the equity complex diluted broader momentum.

At 50 percent, the barometer suggests that trend conditions are workable but not fully supportive. Participation has widened compared to late October, yet alignment remains inconsistent. Energy and precious metals continue to provide clear signals, while grains are improving from a low base. By contrast, crypto, soft commodities and meats remain in varying stages of breakdown, pulling against the broader trend structure.

The key message from the barometer is balance. Conditions are neither cold nor hot; instead, they show a market where sections of the opportunity set are trending well, but the entire cross-asset landscape has not yet shifted into a fully supportive configuration.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

• Volatility Index (+0.22% | prev +3.50%)
  Volatility barely moved this week after a strong pickup earlier in the month. The VIX drifted sideways near recent highs, suggesting that traders are no longer actively bidding for protection even as cross asset dispersion remains significant. The tone has cooled from alarm to watchful patience, with volatility now a background current rather than the main story. The muted move in volatility helped keep trend breakouts contained, which is consistent with the barometer settling at a neutral reading.
• Metals (+1.97% | prev −1.36%)
  Metals turned higher and helped anchor this week’s improvement in trend strength. Precious metals, led by silver, extended their structural advances, while copper held near the upper end of its recent range. The group has shifted from laggard to quiet leader, reinforcing the idea that real asset hedges are reasserting themselves in global portfolios.
• Crypto (−8.64% | prev −5.58%)
  Digital assets suffered another heavy setback. Bitcoin and broader crypto benchmarks sold off sharply, compounding last week’s losses and breaking recent consolidation zones. The sector remains one of the weakest areas of the futures universe, with systematic models either flat or lightly short as trend structure points to ongoing stress rather than repair.
• Energy (+2.30% | prev +1.75%)
  Energy posted another strong week, with crude benchmarks, gasoline and heating oil all pushing higher. Natural gas paused after recent gains but remained elevated. The complex continues to provide some of the cleanest upside trends in the portfolio, although volatility within individual contracts keeps position sizing conservative.
• Soft Commodities (−3.43% | prev −1.43%)
  Softs slipped further into correction. Cocoa and orange juice led the decline with large weekly losses, while coffee and cotton traded more mixed. The sector has become a focal point for downside momentum, with prior leaders now unwinding and few signs yet of a durable base.
• Equity Index (+0.31% | prev −1.80%)
  Equities stabilised after last week’s pullback. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nikkei all nudged higher and remain close to recent peaks, while European indices were roughly flat. The move restored some calm to equity risk but did not create new, decisive trends, leaving systematic exposure selectively long rather than aggressively positioned.
• Grains (+1.15% | prev −0.39%)
  Grains regained their footing. Oats and rough rice firmed, and soybean meal continued to recover, while corn and soybeans gave back some ground but stayed within broader trading ranges. Trend signals across the complex are improving from a low base, with early signs that a new upward phase may be forming in selected contracts.
• Meats (−0.75% | prev −3.20%)
  Meats remained under pressure, though the pace of decline slowed. Feeder cattle and lean hogs stabilised somewhat after recent heavy losses, while live cattle drifted lower. The sector still acts as a drag on trend portfolios, but the worst of the liquidations may be passing.
• Bonds (−0.27% | prev +0.03%)
  Fixed income slipped modestly as longer dated yields ticked higher. The move came after two weeks of small gains and left bond trends mixed, with recent rallies pausing but not yet reversing decisively. For now, bonds provide only limited diversification, with trend signals split between cautious longs and flat exposure across the curve.
• Currencies (+0.33% | prev −0.27%)
  Currency markets were mildly supportive, with the broad dollar index edging higher and commodity linked currencies such as AUD and NZD stabilising. EUR and GBP traded in tight ranges. Trend structure in FX remains subdued, but the modest dollar bid aligns with the strength seen in commodities and real assets.

Summary:
This week delivered quiet indices but restless undercurrents. Volatility stayed contained and equities edged higher, creating a surface impression of stability, yet the real movement took place in commodities and crypto. Energy and metals advanced, grains showed renewed improvement, and softs and digital assets faced sharp reversals. The overall landscape is calm on the surface but charged beneath it, with real asset trends strengthening even as other sectors fragment. This mixed backdrop aligns with the TTU Trend Barometer’s move to 50 percent, signalling a market where opportunities exist but remain uneven across asset classes.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Sugar +5.32% – Sweet Spot For Real Assets
  Sugar topped the performance table this week, extending a rebound from deeply oversold levels. Tight supply expectations and ongoing weather concerns in key producing regions supported prices. For trend followers, the move reinforced the message that pockets of the softs complex are beginning to carve out fresh upside structures even as others continue to unwind.
• Silver +4.69% – Precious Momentum Builds
  Silver delivered another strong advance, riding the broader precious metals trend that has been building through the second half of the year. The metal continues to benefit from a mix of safe haven demand and inflation hedging, with price action confirming a persistent, high beta extension of the gold trend.
• Natural Gas +4.50% – Weather Risk Keeps The Tape Tight
  Natural gas remained among the strongest contracts, adding to recent gains as seasonal demand and storage dynamics kept traders on edge. The contract has shifted from noisy range trading to a more directional profile, providing one of the cleaner energy trends available to systematic models.

Top Losers

• Cocoa −11.61% – From Parabolic To Painful
  Cocoa suffered a sharp correction as speculative long positioning unwound and near term supply fears eased. The drop accelerated an ongoing reversal from this year’s extreme highs, turning what had been one of the standout bull markets into a pronounced source of downside momentum.
• Bitcoin −8.64% – Speculative Risk Under Pressure
  Bitcoin extended last week’s decline with another heavy loss. Liquidity thinned and risk appetite faded, pushing the contract back through recent support zones. The slide has broken the fragile consolidation structure that had been building since October, leaving crypto as one of the weakest segments of the futures universe.
• Orange Juice −6.81% – Premiums Deflate
  Orange juice continued its retreat from elevated levels, giving back a large portion of the weather driven premium that built earlier in the year. The move reflects easing supply concerns and fading panic buying, and it has turned the contract into a clear downside trend following candidate.

Summary:
Leadership this week was concentrated in real assets. Sugar, silver and natural gas carried the upside, supported by a mix of supply constraints, seasonal forces and ongoing demand for inflation hedges. On the downside, the unwind in cocoa and orange juice, combined with renewed weakness in Bitcoin, highlighted how prior high flyers are now providing clean short side opportunities. The result is a market where the strongest trends are found in the extremes, both positive and negative, beneath an index surface that appears relatively calm.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

Equities
Equity markets were steady rather than directional. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nikkei inched higher and remain close to recent peaks, while European indices slipped but stayed within broad ranges. Trend systems are still lightly long in the main benchmarks, yet position sizes are cautious as leadership narrows and the advance becomes more laboured. Indices present a calm surface, but there is more rotation beneath, with small caps and cyclicals lagging the mega cap complex.

Metals
Metals contributed positively to trend portfolios. Silver and gold continued to ride established uptrends, supported by demand for inflation and risk hedges, while copper held firm near the upper part of its recent range. Systematic models maintain a constructive bias to precious metals in particular, where price action still aligns with medium term breakout structures. Positioning is meaningful but not aggressive, given the strong runs already logged in recent months.

Energy
Energy remains a core source of positive trend exposure. Crude benchmarks, gasoline and heating oil all advanced, while natural gas paused after a strong run but stayed elevated. The complex still offers some of the cleanest upside patterns in the futures universe. Systems remain long across several contracts, using moderated sizing and tighter risk controls to manage the inherent volatility in this sector.

Crypto
Crypto continued to weigh on risk sentiment. Bitcoin and related contracts extended their decline, reinforcing the breakdown of the tentative base that formed in October. Most systematic programs either hold small tactical shorts or remain flat, treating the sector as a source of downside trend rather than a constructive risk asset. The structure is weak and still rebuilding from earlier stress.

Softs and Meats
Soft commodities diverged. Sugar rallied and helped lift the complex headline, but cocoa and orange juice posted heavy losses as prior speculative excess unwound. Meats remained soft, although the pace of decline slowed and some contracts stabilised after recent sharp moves. Trend portfolios are increasingly skewed to short positions in cocoa and orange juice, with limited or no long exposure in the meat complex until clearer bases form.

Rates and FX
Fixed income slipped modestly as longer-dated yields edged higher. The pullback interrupted the recent recovery in bond prices but has not yet created a strong new trend. Exposure across the curve remains mixed and generally small. In currencies, the dollar enjoyed a mild bid while commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and NZD steadied. Trend signals in FX remain muted, keeping systems in low-conviction, diversified positions rather than concentrated directional bets.

Summary:
Portfolio dynamics this week reflected a calm index surface covering energetic moves underneath. Long exposure in energy and precious metals, together with emerging trends in selected grains and short positions in softs and crypto, supported the improvement in the SG Trend Index and helped offset the fading strength in the TTU Trend Barometer. Equities, rates and FX contributed more modestly, leaving real assets and speculative unwind stories as the primary drivers of systematic performance.

Final Reflections – Silent Surface, Surging Currents

The second week of November presented a market that looked calm from a distance and busy up close. Equity indices edged higher and volatility barely moved, creating the impression of stability, yet trends beneath the surface were far more uneven. Strong moves in energy, metals and selected grains contrasted with sharp reversals in cocoa, orange juice and Bitcoin. The real motion remained below the waterline.

The SG Trend Index improved to plus 1.99 percent month to date and plus 1.08 percent year to date, a constructive step up from last week’s negative starting point. But the TTU Trend Barometer closed the week at 50 percent, a neutral reading that captures the late-week loss of alignment. Early strength across real assets met resistance as the week progressed, and while trends remain present, they are not firing in unison.

Three takeaways stand out:

1. Trend conditions are usable, but not decisive. A barometer reading at 50 percent signals an environment where opportunities exist, yet traders must remain selective and responsive rather than assume broad participation.
2. Real assets continue to lead, but frictions have increased. Energy and precious metals maintained upward pressure, and grains improved, but cracks appeared elsewhere as soft commodities and crypto delivered outsized downside moves that disrupted earlier momentum.
3. Calm headline indices still conceal rotation. Equity markets showed little movement, but underneath the surface, leadership remained narrow and rotation persistent. Systematic portfolios continue to find returns away from equities rather than within them.

The takeaway for now: this is a market where the currents are still active, but not fully aligned. The surface appears tranquil, yet the strength of trends varies by sector and shifted meaningfully as the week closed. Systems that remain diversified and responsive, rather than committed to any single narrative, are best placed to capture opportunities while the environment recalibrates.

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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