Trend Following: Week in Review - October 2, 2026

“Only Fourteen Markets Rose. Trend Strength Held at 52%.”

This Week in Trend – 2 October 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, our weekly examination of the evolving structure of global futures markets and what that structure means for systematic trend followers. This edition covers market conditions through the US close on Friday, 2 October 2026. Market returns, the SG Trend Index and the TTU Trend Barometer reading are all as at that close.

This was a week in which most markets fell and trend strength held its ground. Only 14 of 49 contracts finished higher, down from 24 a week ago and level with the narrowest upside breadth in the tracked sequence, yet the TTU Trend Barometer was unchanged at 52%, still inside the Neutral band and 3 points below the 55% boundary. The SG Trend Index also gave ground. Its year-to-date figure slipped from +16.05% to +15.72%, ending a run of seven consecutive weekly gains. Metals fell 5.45% with all five contracts lower, the largest sector decline, and Grains 2.84% with seven of eight lower, while Soft Commodities fell 0.84%, Energy 0.78%, Bonds 0.59% and Currencies 0.50%. On the other side of the ledger, Bitcoin gained 1.22%, the VIX 0.82%, Meats 0.35% and Equity Indices 0.27%. Orange Juice fell 10.52%, the largest move on the board in either direction, and Sugar gained 7.73%, the largest advance. The average move across the board rose from 2.11% to 2.42%, while the spread between best and worst widened from 14.96 percentage points to 18.25. Most of the week’s large declines extended structures that were already falling, which is consistent with a much narrower board leaving trend strength where it was.

Last week’s report closed by asking whether the Barometer’s recovery would extend toward the favourable band or settle inside Neutral. It settled, holding at 52%. Six other questions were left open. Would the petroleum advances in Energy absorb their fall or give way? Would the declines in Bonds keep steepening? Would the precious metals extend their declines with Copper close to its high? Would Grains hold four contracts at the top of their charts? Would the US Dollar Index clear the top of its range? And how would September close for the SG Trend Index? The petroleum charts eased again without giving way: Crude Oil WTI, Heating Oil and Gasoline RBOB each sit below last week’s levels but well above the ranges from which their advances began. Bonds steepened further, with the 30 Year Bond down 1.73% and three of four maturities at new lows. The precious metals extended their declines, and this time Copper fell with them. Grains did not hold: Soybean Meal and Soybeans pulled back from their highs and Corn fell below the level it had held since August, although Rough Rice, Canola and Oats remain close to theirs. The US Dollar Index rose 1.00% and moved above its summer high. And the SG Trend Index gave back 0.33 percentage points across a week that straddled the month end, so October opens at -0.08%.

Trend Indicators: Barometer Holds at 52%, SG Trend Index Ends Its Run at Seven Weeks

TTU Trend Barometer: 52%, unchanged from last week. TTU describes overall trend strength as Strong, while the 52% reading remains inside the Neutral environment band, 3 points below the 55% threshold for a favourable environment. The 10-day rate of change reads Rising Weakly. The five-week sequence now stands at 55, 59, 45, 52 and 52. The reading is 22 points above the late July low of 30% and 7 points below the 59% of three weeks ago, having recovered half of the 14-point fall of mid September.

Set against the performance table, a steady reading is not what the board would suggest at first glance. Thirty-five of 49 contracts fell, upside breadth matched the narrowest reading in the sequence, and the SG Trend Index posted its first weekly decline in eight weeks. The Barometer gave back none of last week’s 7-point recovery.

The Barometer counts how many markets are generating medium to strong trends, not which way they are going or how far they moved in a given week. A week in which most markets fell is not a week without trends, and this week a large share of the declines ran in the direction the charts already pointed. Of the ten largest moves on the board, seven ran with the structures beneath them, against four a week ago. Orange Juice gave back the prior week’s counter-trend gain and more, Palladium, Silver and Platinum extended declines that have run since February, Natural Gas fell inside its own decline, and Sugar and the Nikkei 225 rose toward the top of their charts. Only Soybean Meal, Corn and Cotton ran against the advances beneath them.

The sector data is consistent with that reading. Running with their structures, the precious metals extended their declines, with Palladium at the lowest level on its chart, the 5 Year Note, 10 Year Note and 30 Year Bond moved to new lows, Lumber reached a new low, Sugar broke to the highest level on its chart, the Nasdaq 100 set another high, the Nikkei 225 returned to the upper end of its chart, and the US Dollar Index cleared its summer high while EUR and CHF moved to the lowest levels on theirs. Running against them, Copper, Soybean Meal and Soybeans pulled back from their highs, Corn gave up the level it had held since its August gap, Cotton fell further from its August high, and the DJIA and the European indices extended their pullbacks, while Coffee rose inside its decline. The first list is the longer of the two. At 52%, the Barometer is describing an environment that a week of broad declines left unchanged, because many of those declines extended trends that were already in place.

SG Trend Index: -0.08% month to date for October and +15.72% year to date as of 2 October. The year-to-date figure has slipped from +16.05% to +15.72%, a decline of 0.33 percentage points that ends a run of seven consecutive weekly gains. The month-to-date figure covers only the first two trading days of October, and the final September figure is not shown in this week’s capture. Set against the Barometer, the index slipped while trend strength held, after three weeks in which the two moved together. Over the last five weeks the Barometer has held, risen 4, fallen 14, risen 7 and held, while the index has added 2.04, 2.45, 0.50 and 1.37 percentage points and then given back 0.33. The Barometer measures how many markets are trending, and the index records what institutional trend-following portfolios earned. A steady reading alongside a small loss is consistent with the cost falling in the long structures that gave ground, in Grains, Copper, Cotton and the DJIA and European indices, while the gains in the falling markets did not quite offset it. Across the five weeks the index has still added 6.03 percentage points.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (+0.27% | prev +1.09%)

Equity Indices gained 0.27% with only two of seven contracts higher, a second consecutive sector gain carried almost entirely by one market. The Nikkei 225 rose 5.17%, the second largest gain on the board, and the Nasdaq 100 0.56%, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.29%, the S&P 500 0.34%, the DAX 0.77%, Euro Stoxx 50 1.11% and the DJIA 1.32%. The two contracts that led the recovery a week ago led again, and the rest of the sector did not follow. The Nikkei 225 near 69,785 has returned to the upper end of its chart, close to the peak it set in the summer, and the Nasdaq 100 near 31,049 has set another high. The S&P 500 near 7,777 remains close to its own high. The DJIA near 51,485 has extended its pullback from the August high near 54,000, and Euro Stoxx 50 near 6,279 and the DAX near 25,430 gave back the lift they made a week ago and remain below their late August highs. The Russell 2000 near 2,852 continues to drift lower from its summer high. The advances that have run since the spring are still visible on all seven charts, but the sector has divided, with the Nasdaq 100 and the Nikkei 225 at their highs and the blue-chip and European indices in pullbacks that have now run for several weeks.

Energy (-0.78% | prev -1.36%)

Energy fell 0.78% with three of six contracts lower, a second consecutive sector decline. Natural Gas fell 5.89%, the fifth largest decline on the board, followed by Ethanol at 2.28% and Crude Oil WTI at 1.41%, while Gasoline RBOB rose 3.92%, Heating Oil 0.87% and Crude Oil Brent 0.11%. Brent is shown on a comparable front-month basis. The contract rolled from November to December during the week, and the larger weekly gain displayed in the source data compares two different contracts, so it is not used here. The same caution applies to Gasoline RBOB and Heating Oil, whose October contracts expired on 30 September. Both are recorded as higher for the week, yet Gasoline RBOB near 3.31 and Heating Oil near 4.56 sit below the levels their charts showed a week ago, so for those two the charts are the better guide to the structure. On the charts, the petroleum complex eased for a second week. WTI near 91.11 has moved further from the test of the 100 level, Brent near 102.25 was little changed and holds in the upper part of its range, Heating Oil has come back again from the highest level on its chart, and Gasoline RBOB remains inside the range below its spring high. Natural Gas near 3.04 has slipped back toward the base it built through the summer, inside the decline running since February, and Ethanol near 2.10 holds close to the highest level on its chart. Last week this report asked whether the petroleum advances would absorb their fall or give way. Two weeks in, they have absorbed it, with each chart still well above the level from which its advance began.

Metals (-5.45% | prev -1.92%)

Metals fell 5.45% with all five contracts lower, the largest sector decline on the board and a second consecutive weekly fall. Palladium lost 8.13%, the second largest decline on the board, followed by Silver at 6.77%, Platinum at 5.46%, Gold at 3.68% and Copper at 3.21%. Last week the precious metals resumed their declines while Copper rose. This week the declines extended and Copper fell with them. Palladium near 1,173 has moved to the lowest level on its chart. Silver near 60.71 has given back most of its August bounce, and Gold near 4,172 has extended its fall from the late August high toward the July low near 4,000. Platinum near 1,707 turned lower again, well below its February high. Copper near 6.58 pulled back from the highest level on its chart, though the advance that has run since last autumn remains in place. Four of the five moves ran with the structures beneath them. For a portfolio carrying short exposure in the precious metals the week paid at every contract, and for one carrying long exposure in Copper it was a cost against an advance that remains intact.

Soft Commodities (-0.84% | prev +2.60%)

Soft Commodities fell 0.84% with three of six contracts lower, and the sector held both the best and the worst contract on the board. Sugar rose 7.73%, the largest gain of the week, followed by Coffee at 3.64% and Cocoa at 0.91%, while Orange Juice fell 10.52%, the largest decline, Cotton 4.63% and Lumber 2.14%. Sugar near 19.91 has broken to the highest level on its chart, extending the advance that began in the summer. Orange Juice near 137.25 gave back the whole of the prior week’s gain and more and is back at the lows of the decline that has run most of the year. Lumber near 527 moved to a new low. Those three moves ran with the structures beneath them. Cocoa near 5,609 held where it finished a week ago, inside its rebound from the spring. Coffee near 290.75 rose inside its decline from the July spike, and Cotton near 78.76 fell further from its August high, leaving the advance it built through the spring under pressure. A week ago Orange Juice charged a portfolio carrying short exposure there. This week it repaid that cost and more, and Sugar paid a portfolio positioned with its climb.

Grains (-2.84% | prev +1.61%)

Grains fell 2.84% with seven of eight contracts lower, reversing the prior week’s gain. Soybean Meal fell 6.33%, the fourth largest decline on the board, followed by Corn at 5.77%, Soybeans at 3.09%, Wheat at 2.88%, Oats at 2.86%, Canola at 1.58% and Rough Rice at 1.36%, while Soybean Oil rose 1.15%. Last week the sector average caught up with the charts. This week the charts gave ground, though not evenly. Soybean Meal near 347 has come back from the new high it set a week ago, and Soybeans near 1,277 have pulled back from the top of their chart. Corn near 497.25 has fallen below the level it held since its August gap higher, the clearest break in the sector. Wheat near 683 fell for a fifth week and continues to unwind its August spike. Rough Rice near 16.40, Canola near 813.80 and Oats near 408.75 eased by smaller amounts and remain close to the highest levels on their charts. Soybean Oil near 68.63 edged higher inside the range below its summer peak. Wheat’s fall ran with its structure, and the three contracts near their highs absorbed the week without damage to their charts. The breaks were in Corn, Soybeans and Soybean Meal.

Meats (+0.35% | prev +1.93%)

Meats gained 0.35% with one of three contracts higher. Lean Hogs rose 1.59%, while Feeder Cattle fell 0.25% and Live Cattle 0.30%. After three weeks of alternating gains and losses, the cattle contracts barely moved. Feeder Cattle near 331 and Live Cattle near 221.40 are holding the bounces they made from the lows of the declines that have run from their spring highs, without yet changing the shape of either chart. Lean Hogs near 70.08 sits at the lowest level on its chart after last week’s roll, and this week’s gain is a small lift from those lows. Its decline from the spring high remains intact. For a portfolio carrying short exposure in the sector, the week was close to flat.

Bonds (-0.59% | prev -0.98%)

Bonds fell 0.59% with three of four contracts lower, a fifth consecutive sector decline. The 30 Year Bond lost 1.73%, the 10 Year Note 0.48% and the 5 Year Note 0.19%, while the 2 Year Note gained 0.05%. The ordering seen last week held again, with declines growing with maturity, and at the short end the 2 Year Note was effectively unchanged. The 5 Year Note near 103.44, 10 Year Note near 104.38 and 30 Year Bond near 102.84 have each moved to new lows on their charts, with the 30 Year Bond falling furthest. The 2 Year Note near 101.76 held at the low it reached a week ago. Last week this report asked whether the declines that have run since the winter peaks would keep steepening, and at the long end they did. For a portfolio carrying short exposure across the curve, the week paid at three maturities and was flat at the fourth.

Currencies (-0.50% | prev -0.70%)

Currencies fell 0.50%, and the common factor held for a third week. The US Dollar Index rose 1.00%, again the only gain in the basket, while EUR fell 1.33%, AUD 1.10%, NZD 0.99%, CAD 0.85%, JPY 0.48%, CHF 0.16% and GBP 0.11%. The Dollar Index near 101.66 has moved above the highs it set in the summer and now sits at the highest level on its chart, clear of the range that had contained it all year. EUR near 1.1290 and CHF near 1.2169 have moved to the lowest levels on their charts. CAD near 0.7042 is back at its summer low, and NZD near 0.5629 sits at the bottom of its range. GBP near 1.3245 held in the lower part of its range. AUD near 0.6949 slipped back below 0.70, though its climb from last year’s lows remains the firmest upward structure in the basket. JPY near 0.6373 eased slightly and holds above the lows from which it lifted in September, inside the decline that has run all year. Last week the Dollar Index sat close to the top of its range. This week it left the range, and the rest of the basket moved with it.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX rose 0.82% and near 17.8 remains in the lower part of its range for the year, consistent with an equity sector that divided without showing stress. Bitcoin rose 1.22% to near 84,810, recovering part of the prior week’s 3.03% fall. The rebound from the summer lows near 60,000 continues, but the decline from above 120,000 remains the dominant feature of its chart.

Top Movers

The two halves of the table are uneven this week, and the declines are the larger half. The five largest declines range from 10.52% to 5.89%, and the five largest gains from 7.73% to 1.59%. The losers come from four sectors, and four of the five extended structures already in place: Orange Juice returned to its lows, Palladium and Silver extended the declines in the precious metals, and Natural Gas fell inside its own decline. Soybean Meal is the exception, pulling back from the new high it set a week ago. The gainers also come from four sectors. Sugar broke to the highest level on its chart and the Nikkei 225 returned to the upper end of its own, both running with their advances, while Coffee rose inside a decline and Lean Hogs lifted from the lows of its own. Gasoline RBOB appears among the gainers, but its October contract expired during the week and its chart sits lower than a week ago, so its figure is likely affected by the roll. Crude Oil Brent, adjusted to its comparable front-month change of 0.11%, does not appear. Across the ten largest moves on the board, seven ran with the structures beneath them, against four a week ago. That shift is consistent with a Barometer that held steady through a week of broad declines.

Portfolio View

For a portfolio following the prevailing structures, a week in which most markets fell was a week in which much of the book was positioned to fall with them. The Barometer held at 52%, inside the Neutral band, while the SG Trend Index gave back 0.33 percentage points to +15.72% year to date, ending its run of weekly gains at seven. The precious metals extended their declines, three Bonds maturities moved to new lows, Orange Juice and Lumber returned to their lows, and the US Dollar Index cleared its summer high as EUR and CHF fell to theirs. Sugar, the Nasdaq 100 and the Nikkei 225 extended advances at the top of their charts. A portfolio positioned with those structures was paid in the precious metals, Bonds, Orange Juice, Sugar and the dollar, and paid for the pullbacks in Copper, Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Corn, Cotton, the DJIA and the European indices. The week was directional in the precious metals, the long end of the curve and across the currency complex, while established structures were interrupted in Grains and Copper.

Final Reflections

After a week in which breadth and trend strength moved together, this week they parted. The number of contracts finishing higher fell from 24 to 14 while the Barometer held at 52%, and the SG Trend Index sided with breadth, slipping 0.33 percentage points and ending three consecutive weeks in which the return figure followed the Barometer.

Metals made the point most plainly. Every contract in the sector fell, and the average slid to -5.45%, the largest sector decline on the board. Four of those five declines extended structures that have run since February, and the Barometer counts them as persistence. Bonds made the same point at the long end of the curve, and the Currencies basket made it around the dollar.

1. Trend strength held in a week when most markets fell. Much of the decline ran in the direction the charts already pointed.

The five-week sequence now reads 55, 59, 45, 52 and 52. The Barometer has recovered half of the 14-point fall of mid September and sits 3 points below the favourable band, while the SG Trend Index has added 6.03 percentage points across the same five weeks. That the reading held through a board this narrow reflects the character of the declines, most of which extended structures already in place.

2. The return figure and the Barometer disagreed. The Barometer counted the markets that were trending, and the return figure recorded where the cost fell.

Seven of the ten largest moves on the board ran with the structures beneath them, led by Orange Juice, Palladium and Sugar. The cost sat in long structures that gave ground: Copper fell 3.21% from the highest level on its chart, Soybean Meal 6.33% and Soybeans 3.09% from theirs, Corn 5.77% through the level it had held since August, and Cotton 4.63% further from its August high. A trend-following portfolio can have most of its markets move with the structures it is following and still give a little back, depending on where the largest gains and losses fall, and the index’s 0.33 percentage point decline is consistent with that kind of week.

This week was a reminder that the direction of a move and its value to a trend follower are separate measurements. Palladium fell 8.13% and paid a portfolio positioned with its decline. Copper fell 3.21% and charged one positioned with its climb. Sugar rose 7.73% and paid a portfolio following its breakout, while Coffee rose 3.64% and charged one carrying short exposure there. Falling markets are not bad markets for a portfolio positioned to fall with them, and rising markets are not good ones for a portfolio positioned the other way. What matters each week is whether a market moved with the structure a portfolio was following.

The week ahead is therefore about whether the Barometer resumes its recovery toward 55% or gives ground from 52%. Grains are the sector to follow: Corn has broken below its August level and Soybeans and Soybean Meal have pulled back from their highs, while Rough Rice, Canola and Oats remain close to theirs, and the next week or two will show which group sets the course of the complex. Copper has pulled back from its high while the precious metals extend their declines. The US Dollar Index has cleared its summer high, with EUR and CHF at the lowest levels on their charts. Bonds have moved to new lows at three maturities, and the question is whether the 2 Year Note joins them. The petroleum charts have eased for two weeks while remaining well above the levels from which their advances began. And October has opened with the SG Trend Index at -0.08% for the month. In each case the question is the same one it always is: does the structure persist? For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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