Trend Following - Week in Review - September 12, 2025

“Coming Home Strong”

This Week in Trend – 12 September 2025

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your weekly pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

The TTU Trend Barometer surged to 45 percent, up from 30 percent last week, lifting conditions from very weak into the neutral zone. Breadth is now broadening with more markets participating. The SG Trend Index gained further ground, improving to +2.55% month-to-date and trimming YTD losses to -5.30% (versus +0.60% MTD and -7.00% YTD last week). After a gruelling first half, strength is re-emerging across metals, crypto, and softs, even as prior leaders in meats faltered.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of Sep 12): +2.55%
• Year-to-date: -5.30%
  (Previous week: +0.60% MTD | -7.00% YTD)

The SG Trend Index extended its recovery, with diversified support helping to balance sector retracements. Crypto, metals, and selective softs provided leadership, while meats and rice pulled back.

TTU Trend Barometer

• Current reading: 45 percent – Neutral
• Previous reading: 30 percent
• 10-day rate of change: Rising firmly

“Breadth is broadening at last — trend is coming home strong with renewed conviction.”

At thirty, the floor remains fragile - glimmers appear, but breadth refuses to improve.”

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Asset Class Breakdown – Uneven Glimmers

• Crypto: +4.37% – Bitcoin powered higher, regaining leadership.
• Metals: +3.09% – Palladium and silver drove sector strength.
• Soft Commodities: +2.82% – Orange juice and coffee staged strong rebounds.
• Equities: +1.01% – Nikkei and Euro Stoxx led, US indices mixed.
• Grains: +0.90% – Corn, soybeans, and canola posted solid gains.
• Currencies: +0.36% – AUD and NZD supported modest strength.
• Energy: +0.18% – Crude and nat gas steadied after prior weakness.
• Bonds: +0.06% – Long-end held gains, yields steady.
• Meats: -1.64% – Live cattle and feeders reversed sharply.
• Volatility Index: -6.35% – VIX collapsed, easing hedging demand.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Palladium: +8.73% – Explosive surge.
• Orange Juice: +7.78% – Sharp rebound.
• Coffee: +6.32% – Strength across softs.
• Bitcoin: +4.37% – Crypto resurgence.
• Nikkei 225: +4.13% – Strongest among equities.

Top Losers

• Feeder Cattle: -3.44% – Heaviest retracement in meats.
• Rough Rice: -3.28% – Grain weakness in rice.
• Natural Gas: -3.05% – Continued softness.
• Live Cattle: -2.57% – Leaders turned to laggards.
• VIX: -6.35% – Hedging demand collapsed.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

• Metals: Palladium’s outlier surge boosted exposure; silver and gold steady contributors.
• Crypto: Bitcoin rally reinforced the diversification benefit of rare positive bursts.
• Softs: Coffee and OJ provided upside offsets to recent sector weakness.
• Equities: Nikkei and Euro Stoxx firmed; Russell and US indices consolidated.
• Grains: Corn, soybeans, and canola turned higher, broadening participation.
• Meats: Cattle and feeders rolled over, erasing prior leadership.
• Energy: Crude and nat gas steady; volatility subdued.
• Currencies: Modest support from AUD, NZD, and CAD.
• Volatility: Collapsing VIX dampened breakout conditions but eased overall stress.

Final Reflections – Coming Home Strong

The story of September so far is one of resilience. After a bruising first half, breadth is finally firming. Crypto, metals, and softs are shouldering leadership while equities and grains add selective support. The retracement in meats shows how leadership can rotate, but diversification is doing its job: strength in one corner is offsetting weakness in another.

With the SG Trend Index repairing losses and the TTU Barometer pushing into neutral, trend is now coming home strong. The battle for survivability in the first half is giving way to compounding opportunities in the second.

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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This document contains simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations AND SHOULD BE VIEWED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT ACCOUNT.

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