Trend Following - Week in Review - September 19, 2025

“Narrow Resilience, Heavy Setbacks”

This Week in Trend – 19 September 2025

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your weekly pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

The TTU Trend Barometer slipped to 36 percent from 45 percent last week, moving conditions from neutral back into moderately weak territory. Breadth narrowed with fewer markets participating. The SG Trend Index still advanced, rising to +3.36% month-to-date and cutting YTD losses to −4.55% (versus +2.55% MTD and −5.30% YTD last week). Equities and meats carried the torch, while sharp reversals in coffee and palladium reminded traders how fragile progress remains.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of Sep 19): +3.36%
• Year-to-date: -4.55%
  (Previous week: +2.55% MTD | -5.30% YTD)

The SG Trend Index extended its month-to-date recovery, though progress slowed as breadth faltered. Equities and meats delivered upside while commodities like coffee and palladium collapsed, trimming momentum.

TTU Trend Barometer

• Current reading: 36 percent – Moderately Weak
• Previous reading: 45 percent
• 10-day rate of change: Rising moderately

The barometer dipped back below neutral, underscoring that resilience remains narrow. Heavy commodity setbacks outweighed equity gains.

“Fragile breadth defines this week — resilience in a few beams, but heavy weights keep the structure unsteady.”

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Asset Class Breakdown – Uneven Glimmers

• Meats: +1.74% – Feeder cattle (+2.96%) and live cattle (+1.68%) extended leadership.
• Equity Indices: +1.26% – Nasdaq (+2.09%), Russell 2000 (+2.27%), and S&P (+0.39%) lifted global equities, though Nikkei fell (−1.19%).
• Metals: −0.79% – Gold (+1.12%) and silver (+2.96%) provided ballast, but palladium collapsed (−6.17%).
• Soft Commodities: −2.96% – Coffee (−7.95%) and cocoa (−2.71%) dominated sector weakness.
• Crypto: −1.55% – Bitcoin retraced from highs.
• Grains: −1.40% – Soybeans, canola, and soybean oil pulled lower, offsetting corn’s small gain.
• Energy: −0.53% – Crude and nat gas eased, stuck in range.
• Bonds: −0.38% – Yields ticked higher, led by weakness at the long end.
• Currencies: −0.42% – USD firmed modestly, while AUD and NZD lagged.
• Volatility Index: −1.34% – VIX steady at subdued levels.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Feeder Cattle: +2.96% – Fresh sector leadership.
• Russell 2000: +2.27% – Small-cap strength boosted equity breadth.
• Nasdaq 100: +2.09% – Tech resilience intact.
• Silver: +2.96% – Strongest among metals.
• Live Cattle: +1.68% – Added to meat sector gains.

Top Losers

• Coffee: −7.95% – Steepest commodity reversal.
• Palladium: −6.17% – Outlier collapse.
• Canola: −3.28% – Weakness persisted in grains.
• Lumber: −3.24% – Ongoing drag in softs.
• Soybean Oil: −3.14% – Rounded out heavy softs declines.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

• Equities: US markets pushed higher, supporting composite strength. Japan softened, trimming Asian contribution.
• Meats: Outlier gains in cattle offset broader commodity weakness.
• Metals: Silver and gold provided steady support, while palladium’s collapse dented the sector's balance.
• Softs: Coffee’s dramatic reversal weighed heavily, dragging the asset class lower.
• Grains: Soy complex remained under pressure, diluting corn’s mild gains.
• Crypto: Bitcoin’s setback reduced its diversifier contribution.
• Energy: Range-bound crude and gas kept exposures muted.
• Rates & FX: Bonds softened at the long end; FX was mixed, with the USD firmer and commodity currencies weak.

Final Reflections – Coming Home Strong

This week underscored the precarious balance in global trends. Equities and meats offered narrow beams of resilience, but collapsing softs and palladium showed how quickly setbacks can tilt the balance.

The SG Trend Index still reflects recovery underway, but the TTU Barometer’s slide back into weak territory highlights fragile breadth. For systematic trend followers, the lesson is clear: resilience in isolated corners is not enough. True compounding requires breadth — and for now, the heavy weights remain in control.

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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