Trend Following: Week in Review - September 25, 2026

“The Leaderboard Turned Over. Most of the Trends Beneath It Held.”

This Week in Trend – 25 September 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, our weekly examination of the evolving structure of global futures markets and what that structure means for systematic trend followers. This edition covers market conditions through the US close on Friday, 25 September 2026. Market returns, the SG Trend Index and the TTU Trend Barometer reading are all as at that close.

This was a week that looked like rotation on the leaderboard and persistence underneath it. Soft Commodities and Meats, the two weakest sectors a week ago, finished first and second with gains of 2.60% and 1.93%. Crypto, Energy and Metals, three of the four strongest, finished among the bottom four, and six of ten sectors changed sign. Yet trend strength improved. The TTU Trend Barometer rose 7 points from 45% to 52%, and the SG Trend Index added 1.37 percentage points for its seventh consecutive weekly gain. Much of what looked like reversal at the sector level was last week’s interruptions ending and established trends resuming. In detail, 24 of 49 contracts finished higher, up from 18 a week ago. Grains gained 1.61% with six of eight contracts higher and Equity Indices 1.09% with six of seven higher, while Currencies fell 0.70% with only the US Dollar Index higher, Bonds 0.98% with all four maturities lower, Energy 1.36%, Metals 1.92%, the VIX 2.97% and Bitcoin 3.03%. Heating Oil fell 7.72%, the largest move on the board in either direction, and Orange Juice gained 7.24%, the largest advance. The average move across the board edged up from 2.04% to 2.11%, while the spread between best and worst narrowed from 17.90 percentage points to 14.96.

Last week’s report closed by asking whether the Barometer’s fall was a pause in the structures that had built the prior reading or the start of their breaking down. On this week’s evidence it was a pause. Six other questions were left open. Would the interruption in Metals extend? Would Bonds recover their uniformity across the curve? Which reading applied to Cotton and Sugar? Would Energy keep gaining as leadership rotated away from the crude pair? Would Oats extend its breakout? And would the dollar factor persist in Currencies? The interruption in Metals did not extend. Silver, Gold and Platinum each fell by more than they had gained a week earlier, Palladium extended its slide, and Copper rose. Bonds fell across all four maturities, with declines growing with maturity as they did a fortnight ago. Cotton and Sugar rose 1.92% and 1.43%, recovering part of the prior week’s falls without regaining their highs. Energy did not keep gaining. Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB and Crude Oil WTI supplied three of the five largest declines on the board, while Natural Gas rose 6.02%. Oats added 3.38% and extended its breakout. And the dollar factor held for a second week, with seven of eight currencies lower against a rising US Dollar Index.

Trend Indicators: Barometer Recovers to 52%, SG Trend Index Extends Its Run to a Seventh Week

TTU Trend Barometer: 52%, up 7 points from last week. The reading recovers half of the prior week’s 14-point fall and remains inside the Neutral band, 3 points below the 55% mark that separates Neutral from a favourable environment and 12 points above the 40% boundary with a weak environment. The 10-day rate of change reads neutral. The five-week sequence now stands at 55, 55, 59, 45 and 52. The reading is 22 points above the late July low of 30%.

Set against the performance table, that is not the reading the leaderboard would predict. Six of the ten largest moves on the board ran against the structures beneath them, the same count as a week ago, and on that evidence alone a second decline in trend strength would have been a reasonable expectation. The Barometer rose instead, and the SG Trend Index added 1.37 percentage points, close to three times the gain it posted a week earlier.

The Barometer counts how many markets are generating medium to strong trends, not which way they are going or how far they moved in a given week. A good part of last week’s board was made up of interruptions: Metals rose inside a decline, the 30 Year Bond rose while the rest of the curve fell, Cotton and Sugar fell from the upper end of their charts, and Equity Indices pulled back from their highs. This week most of those interruptions reversed. Much of the turnover in the sector ranking was the board moving back into line with trends already in place.

The sector data is consistent with that reading. Running with their structures, Silver, Palladium, Gold and Platinum extended the declines that have run since February, Copper held close to the highest level on its chart, all four Bonds maturities moved to new lows, Rough Rice, Soybean Meal and Oats reached the highest levels on their charts, Soybeans and Canola held close to theirs, Sugar returned toward the upper end of its chart, the Nasdaq 100 reached a new high, and the US Dollar Index led the basket higher for a second week. Running against them, Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB and Crude Oil WTI fell sharply from the upper end of their charts, and Orange Juice, Natural Gas and Feeder Cattle produced large gains inside declines that remain intact. The largest moves of the week sat mostly on the second list, and the larger number of markets sat on the first. At 52%, the Barometer is describing an environment in which most of last week’s interruptions have been repaired and one sector, Energy, has been interrupted in their place.

SG Trend Index: +4.47% month to date for September and +16.05% year to date as of 25 September. The year-to-date figure has risen from +14.68% to +16.05%, a seventh consecutive weekly advance and a gain of 1.37 percentage points, close to three times the prior week’s 0.50. The month-to-date figure has moved from +3.23% to +4.47% with one trading week of September remaining. Set against the Barometer, the two have moved together for a second week. Over the last five weeks the Barometer has risen 5, held, risen 4, fallen 14 and risen 7, while the index has added 0.57, 2.04, 2.45, 0.50 and 1.37 percentage points. When the reading fell, the weekly gain shrank, and when it recovered, the gain recovered with it. The index stayed positive through both weeks because the structures that held were ones a trend follower would already have been positioned with, and this week there were more of them.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (+1.09% | prev -0.66%)

Equity Indices gained 1.09% with six of seven contracts higher, ending three consecutive declines. The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.25%, the Nikkei 225 2.26%, the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 1.18% each, the DAX 0.38% and the DJIA 0.16%, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.77%. A week ago the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 were the only two contracts to rise, and this week they led the recovery. The Nasdaq 100 near 30,921 has reached the highest level on its chart, and the S&P 500 near 7,806 sits close to its own high. The Nikkei 225 near 66,490 remains in the upper part of its chart, below the peak it set in the summer. Euro Stoxx 50 near 6,368 and the DAX near 25,732 lifted after three weeks of decline but remain below the highs they reached at the end of August. The DJIA near 52,180 held close to where it finished a week ago, and the Russell 2000 near 2,860 slipped further from its high, the one contract that has not joined the recovery. The three-week decline in the sector has so far behaved like a pullback inside the advances that have run since the spring, and this week the leaders of those advances moved back toward their highs.

Energy (-1.36% | prev +2.33%)

Energy fell 1.36% with three of six contracts lower, ending three consecutive sector gains. Heating Oil fell 7.72%, the largest move on the board in either direction, followed by Gasoline RBOB at 4.04% and Crude Oil WTI at 3.82%. Natural Gas rose 6.02%, the third largest gain on the board, while Ethanol added 0.95% and Crude Oil Brent 0.43%. A week ago the petroleum products carried the sector, and this week they reversed it. Heating Oil near 4.82 has come back from the highest level on its chart, and Gasoline RBOB near 3.41 gave back part of its three-week climb and remains inside the range below its spring high. WTI near 92.44 has retreated further from the test of the 100 level that left a long upper shadow on its chart a week ago, while Brent near 104.38 held close to the top of its range. Natural Gas near 3.25 has lifted from the base it built through the summer but remains inside the decline running since February. Ethanol near 2.125 is at the highest level on its chart. Chart levels and weekly percentage changes do not line up for Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline RBOB this week, which is common around a contract roll, so those levels are approximate. The advances in Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB and WTI are still visible on their charts, but this was the week in which Energy supplied most of the board’s interruptions rather than its persistence.

Metals (-1.92% | prev +1.14%)

Metals fell 1.92% with four of five contracts lower, reversing the prior week’s gain. Silver lost 3.50%, Palladium 3.30%, Gold 2.34% and Platinum 1.59%, while Copper rose 1.11%. Last week this report described the gain as an interruption rather than a reversal and asked whether it would extend. It did not. Silver near 64.71 gave back the whole of the prior week’s gain and more. Gold near 4,320 and Platinum near 1,778 turned lower again from the bounces they made in August, each well below its February high, and Palladium near 1,278 has moved further into its lows. Copper near 6.78 sits close to the highest level on its chart, the one upward structure in the complex. Every move in the sector this week ran with the structure beneath it: four declines in precious metals that have been falling since February, and a gain in the one metal that has been rising. For a portfolio carrying short exposure in precious metals and long exposure in Copper, last week’s cost was recovered.

Soft Commodities (+2.60% | prev -5.19%)

Soft Commodities gained 2.60% with five of six contracts higher, the largest sector gain on the board one week after the largest sector decline. Orange Juice rose 7.24%, the largest gain on the board, followed by Cocoa at 5.48%, Cotton at 1.92%, Sugar at 1.43% and Lumber at 0.19%, while Coffee fell 0.68%. The sector average reversed, but the moves beneath it divided along the same line as a week ago. Cocoa near 5,603 recovered a little under half of the prior week’s fall and remains inside the rebound it has traced since the spring. Sugar near 18.54 moved back toward the upper end of its chart, and Cotton near 82.60 recovered part of its fall while staying below the highs it set in August. Those three moves ran with the advances beneath them. Orange Juice near 151.40 produced a large gain from the lows of a decline that has run most of the year, and one week does not change the shape of that chart. Coffee near 278.10 edged lower inside its own decline, and Lumber near 533.50 held close to the lows it reached a week ago. A week ago a portfolio positioned with Cocoa, Cotton and Sugar paid for the sector’s fall. This week it recovered part of that cost, while Orange Juice charged a portfolio carrying short exposure there.

Grains (+1.61% | prev +0.51%)

Grains gained 1.61% with six of eight contracts higher, a second consecutive sector gain and the end of three weeks in which the complex split rather than moved. Rough Rice rose 6.04%, the second largest gain on the board, followed by Soybean Meal at 3.46%, Oats at 3.38%, Soybeans at 1.19%, Canola at 0.77% and Corn at 0.14%, while Wheat fell 1.54% and Soybean Oil 0.56%. Rough Rice near 16.62 recovered the prior week’s dip and has moved to the highest level on its chart. Soybean Meal near 370.60 has broken to a new high, and Oats near 418.25 extended the breakout it made a week ago. Soybeans near 1,320 are at the top of their chart and Canola near 827.70 sits close to its high. Corn near 528.75 continues to hold the level it reached with its August gap higher. Wheat near 704 fell for a fourth week and has given back most of its August spike, and Soybean Oil near 67.82 remains below its summer peak. Last week this report noted that six of eight charts sat at or near their highs while the sector average suggested a pause. This week the average caught up with the charts.

Meats (+1.93% | prev -2.94%)

Meats gained 1.93% with two of three contracts higher, reversing most of the prior week’s decline. Feeder Cattle rose 4.39%, the fifth largest gain on the board, and Live Cattle 2.55%, while Lean Hogs fell 1.15%. For three weeks the sector has alternated between gains and losses, and the cattle charts explain why. Feeder Cattle near 332 and Live Cattle near 222.10 have bounced again from the lows of the declines that have run from their spring highs, without yet changing the shape of either chart. Lean Hogs fell again, and its chart shows a much larger drop than its weekly figure, which points to a roll into a deferred contract rather than a collapse in price. Its decline from the spring high remains intact. For a portfolio carrying short exposure in cattle, the week gave back what the prior week had returned, and the structure beneath the position is still in place.

Bonds (-0.98% | prev -0.13%)

Bonds fell 0.98% with all four contracts lower, a fourth consecutive sector decline and a return to uniformity across the curve after a week without it. The 30 Year Bond lost 2.31%, the 10 Year Note 0.92%, the 5 Year Note 0.52% and the 2 Year Note 0.16%. The ordering that held a fortnight ago, with declines growing with maturity, has returned. The 2 Year Note near 101.73, 5 Year Note near 103.70, 10 Year Note near 104.97 and 30 Year Bond near 104.69 have each moved to new lows on their charts, and the 30 Year Bond has given back the small lift it made a week ago and more. The declines that have run since the winter peaks have steepened through September on all four charts. For a portfolio carrying short exposure across the curve, the week paid at every maturity, and all four now sit at the lowest levels on their charts.

Currencies (-0.70% | prev -0.84%)

Currencies fell 0.70%, and the common factor that returned a week ago held for a second week. The US Dollar Index rose 0.78%, again the only gain in the basket, while AUD fell 1.35%, CAD 1.10%, GBP 1.04%, NZD 0.98%, CHF 0.81%, EUR 0.75% and JPY 0.32%. The Dollar Index near 100.77 has moved into the upper part of the range that has contained it all year, close to the highs it set in the summer without clearing them. EUR near 1.143, GBP near 1.3251 and CHF near 1.2181 have slipped to the lower part of their ranges, and NZD near 0.5677 is close to the bottom of its own. CAD near 0.7098 has fallen back toward its summer low. AUD near 0.7017 fell the most, pulling further away from the upper end of its chart, though its climb from last year’s lows is still the firmest upward structure in the basket. JPY near 0.6398 fell only slightly and holds above the lows from which it lifted earlier in the month, while the decline that has run from above 0.6900 all year remains in place. The factor has organised the basket for two weeks, and the Dollar Index now sits close to the top of its range.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX fell 2.97% and near 17.6 remains in the lower part of its range for the year, consistent with six of seven Equity Indices rising and no sign of stress in the equity moves. Bitcoin fell 3.03%, giving back the prior week’s 3.01% gain. The decline from above 120,000 remains the dominant feature of its chart, and the rebound from the summer lows near 60,000 has not reached a level that challenges it.

Top Movers

The two halves of the table are closer in size this week, and they come from different places. The five largest gains range from 7.24% to 4.39%, and the five largest declines from 7.72% to 3.30%. The gainers come from four sectors. Rough Rice is the only one extending a structure already in place, reaching the highest level on its chart. Cocoa recovered a little under half of the prior week’s fall inside its rebound, while Orange Juice, Natural Gas and Feeder Cattle each rose inside declines that remain intact. The losers come from two sectors. Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB and Crude Oil WTI fell against the advances that had carried them to the upper end of their charts, while Silver and Palladium extended declines already in place. Across the ten largest moves on the board, six ran against the structures beneath them, the same count as a week ago. The Barometer rose regardless, which suggests that this week the persistence sat in the quieter moves further down the table.

Portfolio View

For a portfolio following the prevailing structures, most of the week’s turnover called for no change of position. The Barometer rose 7 points to 52%, recovering half of the prior week’s fall, while the SG Trend Index added 1.37 percentage points to +16.05% year to date, its seventh consecutive weekly gain. The precious metals resumed their declines, Bonds fell across all four maturities to new lows, Cotton and Sugar recovered toward their highs, Grains moved higher with four contracts at the top of their charts, and the dollar factor held for a second week. Energy was the exception, with its three petroleum contracts falling sharply from the upper end of their charts. A portfolio positioned with those structures was paid in Bonds, the precious metals, Grains, Equity Indices and the US Dollar Index, and paid for the reversal in Energy and the counter-trend gains in Orange Juice, Natural Gas and cattle. The week was directional in Bonds, the precious metals, the upper reaches of Grains and the dollar, and interrupted in Energy.

Final Reflections

After two weeks in which breadth and trend strength moved in opposite directions, this week they moved together. The number of contracts finishing higher rose from 18 to 24 and the Barometer from 45% to 52%, while the SG Trend Index’s weekly gain widened from 0.50 to 1.37 percentage points, the third consecutive week in which the return figure followed trend strength.

Metals made the point most plainly. The sector average swung from +1.14% to -1.92%, which on the performance table reads as a reversal. On the charts it reads as the declines that have run since February resuming after a single interrupted week, with Copper still rising. Every move in the sector ran with the structure beneath it, and Bonds made the same point across the curve.

1. Trend strength recovered in a week when the sector ranking turned over. Much of the turnover was last week’s interruptions reversing.

The five-week sequence now reads 55, 55, 59, 45 and 52. The Barometer has recovered half of the prior week’s 14-point fall but sits 7 points below the 59% of two weeks ago, while the SG Trend Index has added 6.93 percentage points across the same five weeks. Whether 52% marks the start of a second advance or a level the reading settles around is a question one week cannot answer.

2. The largest moves ran against their structures, and the quieter ones ran with them. The performance table records the first of those. The Barometer is consistent with the second.

Six of the ten largest moves on the board ran against the structures beneath them, led by Heating Oil, Orange Juice and Natural Gas. Further down the table, the 30 Year Bond, Gold, Platinum, Oats, Soybeans, Sugar, the Nasdaq 100 and the US Dollar Index moved by between 0.78% and 3.38%, each in the direction its chart already pointed. There were more persistent structures among those quieter moves than there were reversals among the week’s leaders, which is consistent with the Barometer’s 7-point recovery.

This week was a reminder that the direction of a move and its value to a trend follower are separate measurements. Bonds and the precious metals fell and paid a portfolio positioned with their declines. Energy fell too, and charged a portfolio that had followed the petroleum advances higher. Orange Juice rose 7.24% and charged a portfolio carrying short exposure there, while Rough Rice rose 6.04% and paid one positioned with its climb. Falling markets are not bad markets for a portfolio positioned to fall with them, and rising markets are not good ones for a portfolio positioned the other way. What matters each week is whether a market moved with the structure a portfolio was following.

The week ahead is therefore about whether the Barometer’s recovery extends toward the favourable band or settles inside Neutral. The reading sits at 52%, 3 points below the 55% boundary it crossed for a single week earlier this month. Energy is the sector to follow: Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB and WTI have pulled back from the upper end of their charts, and the next week or two will show whether the advances beneath them absorb the fall or give way. Bonds are at the lowest levels on their charts across all four maturities, and the question is whether the declines keep steepening. The precious metals have resumed their declines after a single interrupted week, with Copper close to its high. Grains have four contracts at the top of their charts after three weeks in which the sector split. The US Dollar Index is close to the top of its range after two weeks in which it organised the Currencies basket. And September closes next Wednesday, with the SG Trend Index at +4.47% for the month so far. In each case the question is the same one it always is: does the structure persist? For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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