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Market Trends for October 2019
Each year lots of pundits like to remind/scare investors about the historic negative events that sometimes occur during the month of October…especially the 1987 crash. And like all humans, investors fear the risk of loss much greater then then joy of gain…so this narrative always seem to do the trick.
But it strikes me that things have changed this year, as I see more and more commentators and non trend following managers play this card on a regular basis.
“Trend Followers have failed on their mandate to deliver Crisis Alpha…”
is what I’m hearing (followed by a marketing statement about a strategy being offered that is able to make money in periods like February and Q4 2018).
hmmm…
I wonder why they say this…I’m sure I don’t need to spell this out to you!
But here is the deal. Trend Followers do not design their strategies with “a mandate to deliver Crisis Alpha” in mind…but rather to deliver strong long-term absolute returns.
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60 The Systematic Investor Series – November 3rd, 2019
This week, we cover some of the dangers of ‘Home Bias’, and the benefits of diversification mixed with good risk management. We also discuss the differences between common Trend Trading and Systematic Trend Following, why investors tend to hold on to losing positions longer than winning positions, why people being hopeful with losses and afraid…
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59 The Systematic Investor Series – October 29th, 2019
On the show today, we cover some of the dangers of investing in something based on its story alone, how market environments can change while the behaviour of participants stays the same, why Trend Followers rely on secret fundamental information being baked into price, the importance of avoiding Outcome Bias, how cockroaches behave in ways that should…
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58 The Systematic Investor Series – October 20th, 2019
This week, we discuss Bank of America’s declaration of the end of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the different attitudes to having ‘insurance’ in the markets, the reasons why too many fund managers are aiming for average returns, and the importance of consistently being present to profit from the biggest price moves. Questions we cover this…
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57 The Systematic Investor Series – October 14th, 2019
On this week’s episode, we discuss the tendency for investors to confuse volatility & noise with risk and instability, the benefits of great mentorship, why the best investments are those that have survived calamitous periods, why risk from any single market shouldn’t be able to ruin your portfolio, and Larry Hite’s observation that there is…
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56 The Systematic Investor Series – October 7th, 2019
This week, we discuss the potential risks of aiming for smooth & steady returns, the pitfalls of having to make predictions, the higher-than-expected appearances of tail events, why it’s dangerous to look at the ‘average performance’ of an industry, and why aiming to trade in a style that suits your personality can actually turn out…
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Market Trends for September 2019
So needless to say, it was a challenging month for trend followers.
But lets just be clear about one thing…those shorter-term strategies that claim that trend following is too crowded and too slow and does not deliver enough convexity…did not do much better than their trend following cousins…and have certainly not delivered nearly the same return so far this year.
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111 Alignment of Interest with Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 2of2
“We do two of the hardest styles of investing that I am aware of.” – Alan Sheen (Tweet) Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I continue our conversation with Alan Sheen, talking about how and why he designed Dalton Street Capital’s investment strategy the way he did, and how it has performed compared to the market…
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55 The Systematic Investor Series – September 30th, 2019
In this week’s episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, DUNN Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund…
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110 The Opportunity of Volatility with Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 1of2
“I learned everything I ever needed to know about systematic and quantitative investing even before I set foot in the field because systematic and quantitative investing, at the end of the day, is about discipline.” – Alan Sheen (Tweet) Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I’m speaking with Alan Sheen, Founder and CIO of Dalton Street…
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