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Episode TimeStamps:
01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion
02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability
04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom
06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making
09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems
12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives
17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict
19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure
22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities
25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension
29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints
33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world
39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk
48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for change
