trading

19/07/2025 by Naomi

“Calm waters can hide deep currents”

This Week In Trend

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your weekly pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

The momentum that showed promise last week has faded. While certain sectors such as softs, grains, and natural gas showed strength, the broader picture softened. Metals lost steam. Crypto reversed. Equities and bonds moved sideways. The number of markets showing medium to strong trends has fallen sharply, a signal that the trend environment has weakened.

This week wasn't about collapse, but contraction. Structure remains, but opportunity narrowed.

SG Trend Index Performance

Month-to-date (as of July 17): +0.21%
Year-to-date: -9.80%

(Previous week MTD: +0.06% | YTD: -9.94%)

A modest improvement in the last week. The SG Trend Index remains deep in drawdown territory.

TTU Trend Barometer: 48 Percent – Neutral

Previous reading: 55 Percent
10-day rate of change: Falling Moderately

The Trend Barometer has retreated from last week’s strength but still sits within the neutral zone. With 48 percent of markets showing medium to strong trend strength, the environment has softened but remains watchable.

“At forty-eight, systems are probing, but conviction is thin.”

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Softs led for the second week running, while volatility and crypto retreated. The dispersion between asset classes has compressed.

Asset Class Breakdown – Reversals and Continuations

Energy: +0.88% (Previous: +2.03%)
Momentum slowed. WTI and Brent both pulled back slightly. Heating Oil also paused after a sharp rise last week. Natural gas stood out, jumping +7.63% and continuing its upward path from prior weeks.
Metals: –0.34% (Previous: +6.73%)
Last week’s strong breakout fizzled. Platinum and palladium dropped over 1%, silver held near highs, and gold remained stable. Trend structures are still present, but momentum weakened.
Equities: +0.19% (Previous: –0.17%)
Flat week overall. U.S. indices hugged their highs with little follow through. European and Japanese indices slipped. Risk appetite remains intact but is slowing.
Soft Commodities: +2.10% (Previous: +5.11%)
Still climbing, but pace has moderated. Orange Juice continued its rebound, while coffee and lumber added strength. Cocoa reversed sharply, down –5.82%, suggesting some fragility in the trend.
Grains: +1.20% (Previous: –3.53%)
A full turnaround. Wheat (+2.53%) and corn (+1.74%) drove the sector higher, following last week’s shakeout. Soybeans and soymeal also posted solid gains. Trend signals may have been re-engaged.
Meats: +0.02% (Previous: +2.66%)
Momentum stalled. Live and feeder cattle declined, while lean hogs held firm. The sector remains in structure, but strength is fading.
Bonds: –0.02% (Previous: –0.41%)
Flat again. No conviction across the curve. Long and short maturities stayed rangebound. Models likely remain sidelined.
Currencies: –0.59% (Previous: –0.58%)
Minimal change from last week. USD weakened modestly, while cross pairs moved slightly in both directions. The sector remains neutral at best.
Crypto: –0.73% (Previous: +7.00%)
A sharp reversal. Bitcoin dipped after a strong breakout last week. While longer-term structure holds, this week’s pullback may have triggered stop tightening.
Volatility Index: –2.20% (Previous: –5.57%)
Another drop in implied volatility, though the pace is slowing. VIX remains low and trending down, keeping risk appetite elevated for now.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

Orange Juice: +10.71% – Continued recovery, now nearing breakout territory
Natural Gas: +7.63% – Strong move off base structure
Coffee / Soybean Oil / Corn: +6.30% / +3.81% / +3.28%
Wheat / Ethanol / Canola: +2.53% / +2.61% / +2.37%

Top Losers

Cocoa: –5.82% – First major pullback in a dominant trend
Rough Rice: –3.21%
VIX: –2.20% – Confirming risk-on
Platinum / Crude Oil WTI / Brent: –1.09% / –1.65% / –0.42%
Silver / JPY / GBP: –1.36% / –0.99% / –0.75%

Portfolio View – Positioning and Impact

Energy: Natural gas provided the only clear upside. Oil and products reversed modestly. Exposure likely remains mixed, with trend signals most active in gas.

Metals: Weakness across the board. While still elevated, momentum has faded. Trend signals likely reduced or neutral. Consolidation expected.

Grains: Strength returned after last week’s setback. Corn and wheat prices pushed higher, offering potential for re-entry. Some systems may have flipped long again.

Softs: Still a leader. Orange Juice maintained upward pressure. Coffee and cotton also climbed. Cocoa’s pullback is notable but remains within trend structure.

Equities: Flat to lower across global indices. S&P and Nasdaq held highs, but the Russell 2000 and European indices pulled back. Risk exposure likely reduced or hedged.

Bonds: Muted action. Price direction remains directionless across the curve. Models are likely flat or very lightly positioned.

Currencies: No conviction. Minor USD weakness, but cross-pairs remain rangebound. Trend systems are probably flat.

Crypto: Minor pullback in Bitcoin. Still structurally intact but under watch. Some systems may begin reducing exposure or pausing entries.

Volatility: VIX continues lower. While not traded directly, the backdrop remains supportive for potential breakout setups elsewhere.

Final Reflections – Narrowing Signals, Fading Edge

This week offered fewer trend opportunities. Energy rotated. Metals softened. Crypto stalled. Only softs and grains offered persistent structure.

The TTU Trend Barometer’s slide to 48 percent reflects a cooling landscape, but not a collapse. Conditions are neutral, with fewer strong signals in play.. The SG Trend Index slipped as well. This is not a reset — but it is a signal to tighten, rotate, and prepare.

In quiet weeks like these, trend followers earn their edge through discipline. Trade the leaders. Cull the rest. Let the noise pass.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document is directly solely to Accredited Investors, Qualified Eligible Participants, Qualified Clients and Qualified Purchasers. No investment decision should be made until prospective investors have read the detailed information in the fund offering documents of any manager mentioned in this document. This document is furnished on a confidential basis only for the use of the recipient and only for discussion purposes and is subject to amendment This document is neither advice nor a recommendation to enter into any transaction. This document is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any security or other financial instrument. This presentation is based on information obtained from sources that TopTradersUnplugged (“TTU”) (“considers to be reliable however, TTU makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information. TTU has not independently verified third party manager or benchmark information, does not represent it as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty, express or implied regarding it and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses relating to its adequacy, accuracy, truth, completeness or use.

All projections, valuations, and statistical analyses are provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein. Such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may use one among many alternative methodologies that produce different results accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses should not be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future events. There is no guarantee that any targeted performance will be achieved Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone

TTU is not and does not purport to be an advisor as to legal, taxation, accounting, financial or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. The recipient should independently evaluate and judge the matters referred to herein. TTU does not provide advice or recommendations regarding an investor’s decision to allocate to funds or accounts managed by any manager (“or to maintain or sell investments in funds or accounts managed by any manager, and no fiduciary relationship under ERISA is created by the investor investing in funds or accounts managed by any manager, or through any communication between TTU and the investor

In reviewing this document, it should be understood that the past performance results of any asset class, or any investment or trading program set forth herein, are not necessarily indicative of any future results that may be achieved in connection with any transaction. Any persons subscribing for an investment must be able to bear the risks involved and must meet the suitability requirements relating to such investment. Some or all alternative investment programs discussed herein may not be suitable for certain investors This document is directed only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such investment professionals. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely upon this document.

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

This document contains simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations AND SHOULD BE VIEWED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT ACCOUNT.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM OR OTHER ASSET.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being shown.

12/07/2025 by Naomi

“The footprints are sticking.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your weekly pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

This past week offered more signs of structural improvement. While not a runaway breakout, there is evidence of traction. Metals continue to fire. Crypto surged. Meats quietly built momentum. Meanwhile, grains stalled after last week’s strength, and softs delivered a shock reversal — but this time, in the opposite direction.

The broad takeaway? Trend structure is returning, but participation is rotating.

SG Trend Index Performance

Month-to-date (as of July 10): +0.06%
Year-to-date: -9.94%

(Previous week MTD: -0.11% | YTD: -10.09%)

A mildly positive start to July. The SG Trend Index clawed back some ground, and while not a breakout, it reflects the slowly stabilizing environment.

TTU Trend Barometer: 55 Percent – Strong

Previous reading: 57 Percent
10-day rate of change: Rising Weakly

The Trend Barometer pulled back slightly to 55 percent but remains strong with a positive tilt. The improvement has paused, but trend conditions are still healthier than two weeks ago. The broader structure remains supportive — especially in metals, crypto, and parts of energy and meats.

“Fifty-five means the machines are still alert, just waiting for clarity.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The standout gains came from the grains complex, with solid support from metals and energy. Soft commodities were the major drag, offsetting much of the portfolio lift from other sectors.

Asset Class Breakdown – Reversals and Continuations

Energy: +2.03% (Previous: +1.21%)
Follow‑through emerged in crude products. WTI, Brent, and Heating Oil rallied strongly off their bases. The breakout in Heating Oil from last week now has confirmation. Natural Gas stayed choppy.
Metals: +6.73% (Previous: +1.28%)
One of the strongest sectors again. Platinum, palladium, and silver surged. Gold remains trend supportive. This is a textbook example of a healthy trend cluster.
Equities: –0.17% (Previous: +0.18%)
Momentum slowed. U.S. indices paused just beneath highs, while the Russell 2000 rolled over. DAX and Euro Stoxx both declined. Equity trends are showing signs of fatigue across the board.
Soft Commodities: +5.11% (Previous: –3.39%)
A sharp turnaround. Orange Juice soared +31.5%, reversing last week’s carnage. Sugar, cocoa, and lumber also rose. Coffee was flat, but overall the softs delivered strong upside surprise.
Grains: –3.53% (Previous: +3.44%)
A full reversal. Canola, corn, and oats broke down hard. Soybeans and wheat extended their slides. A week ago, this sector looked trend‑ready. This week, trend signals likely stopped out.
Meats: +2.66% (Previous: +0.20%)
Steady climbers. Feeder and live cattle continue to grind higher. Lean hogs pulled back but remain in structure. This sector has become a silent contributor.
Bonds: –0.41% (Previous: –0.29%)
Still directionless. The entire curve drifted lower. 30‑year led the way down, with no real conviction across the board. Bonds remain a background player for now.
Currencies: –0.58% (Previous: +0.25%)
A muted but red week. USD ticked higher while EUR, JPY, GBP, and others weakened slightly. FX lacks trend conviction in either direction. Models likely remain lightly exposed.
Crypto: +7.00% (Previous: +0.60%)
Bitcoin rallied sharply from consolidation, closing near highs. This is one of the few clear trending assets right now. Long positions from earlier signals are paying off.
Volatility Index: –5.57% (Previous: –0.54%)
We don’t trade volatility directly, but we watch it closely. The VIX continued to grind lower this week, falling 5.57 percent and sitting near its lowest levels of the year. Despite mild weakness in equities, implied volatility remains subdued — reinforcing a stable, risk-on backdrop. For trend followers, low and falling volatility often precedes breakout conditions, especially when paired with directional moves in other assets. It’s not a signal in itself, but it tells us the waters are calm — and calm waters invite movement.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

Orange Juice: +31.5% – Monster reversal, reclaiming trend ground
Palladium / Copper / Bitcoin: +12.31% / +8.61% / +7.00%
Platinum / Silver / Feeder Cattle: +6.55% / +5.37% / +5.26%
Heating Oil / Crude Products: +4.06% to +3.41%

Top Losers

Canola / Corn / Soybeans: –5.65% / –2.75% / –8.25% – Grains broadly reversed
VIX: –5.57% – Continued collapse in implied volatility
GBP / JPY / CAD: Modest currency declines
Wheat / Oats / Soymeal: –9.00% / –8.50% / –2.38% – Trends invalidated

Portfolio View – Positioning and Impact

Energy: Now trending. The follow‑through in Heating Oil is joined by WTI and Brent. Long positions initiated last week are likely performing. Natural Gas remains the exception with no clear trend.
Metals: Still the portfolio’s core strength. Platinum and palladium broke higher with volume. Silver also made a decisive move. These charts are the definition of trending structure.
Grains: An abrupt breakdown. Last week’s breakouts in corn, oats, and canola were all reversed. This is classic whipsaw terrain. Models were likely stopped out or reduced.
Softs: Explosive upside. Orange Juice and sugar flipped from short candidates to long signals. Cocoa held its bounce. This sector continues to offer outsized moves — both ways.
Equities: U.S. indices paused, and some like Russell 2000 reversed lower. DAX and Euro Stoxx slipped. Models likely tightened stops. This sector is approaching a potential turning point.
Bonds: Lacking signal. All durations are in mid‑range consolidations. Treasuries remain choppy. Portfolio exposure likely flat or passive.
Currencies: Mixed to slightly bearish. The USD edged higher but without force. No major breakout or breakdowns across pairs. Systems likely remain light or flat.
Crypto: Clear breakout. Bitcoin moved strongly above resistance. Models long from prior entries may be adding. This is one of the few clean directional trades in the portfolio.
Volatility: The VIX continues to decline, confirming risk‑on but offering no signal.

Final Reflections – Rotation and Structure

This week was about rotation, not retreat. Grains and equities faded, but crypto, metals, and softs stepped up. Structure is still present — just not in the same places as last week.

The TTU Trend Barometer slipped slightly to 55, reflecting some of this churn, but the big picture remains positive. The SG Trend Index inched forward. Charts are still providing clean entries in some sectors.

For systematic traders, this is a reminder that edge emerges in clusters. Stay with the strong. Exit the weak. Let the market tell the story, one breakout at a time.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

05/07/2025 by Naomi

“A bounce is not a breakout — but it’s a start.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

Signs of life are returning to trend portfolios. After weeks of noise, the past few sessions brought something more substantial: follow-through. The trend environment improved meaningfully, with clean moves in grains, metals, and parts of the energy complex. Even though not every system may be fully on board yet, the ground underfoot feels a little firmer.

The market is still selective, but finally, some of the signals are sticking.

“Momentum Finds Its Feet”

It was a week of recovery and contrast. Grains surged across the board. Energy clawed back gains with strength in heating oil and crude products. Metals continued their positive drift. Meanwhile, softs crumbled, led by a collapse in cocoa, orange juice, and coffee. Equities added modestly, while bonds and vol were relatively quiet.

The backdrop has improved. Now it’s a question of timing. Can the models capitalize before the next twist?

SG Trend Index Performance

Month-to-date (as of July 2): -0.11%
Year-to-date: -10.09%

(Previous week MTD: +0.97% | YTD: -10.48%)

The SG Trend Index slipped slightly to start the new month, giving back some recent gains. Still, the broader trend structure is stabilizing. A neutral open to July, but the underlying environment appears healthier.

TTU Trend Barometer: 57 Percent – Strong Environment

Previous reading: 50 Percent
10-day rate of change: Rising Moderately

The TTU Trend Barometer pushed decisively into “strong” territory this week, reaching 57 percent. That’s the highest reading in over a month. The rise reflects broadening participation across asset classes, and the return of directional structure in grains, metals, and energy.

“Fifty-seven means the machines are waking up.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The standout gains came from the grains complex, with solid support from metals and energy. Soft commodities were the major drag, offsetting much of the portfolio lift from other sectors.

Asset Class Breakdown – Reversals and Continuations

Energy: +1.21% (Previous: -8.44%)
A rebound in price, but structurally still range-bound. WTI and Brent charts show rallies failing near prior resistance zones. Heating Oil was the clear outlier with a clean upward breakout, but the broader energy trend remains murky.
Metals: +1.28% (Previous: +3.14%)
Trend signals are holding. Platinum surged into new highs, and gold remains near its peak. Copper and palladium look less convincing, but the overall metal complex continues to support long signals.
Equities: +0.18% (Previous: +3.65%)
Trend fatigue is creeping in. Despite small gains, charts like S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 are showing signs of stalling just below resistance. Nikkei and DAX rolled over, suggesting global breadth is narrowing.
Soft Commodities: -3.39% (Previous: +1.53%)
Charts confirm the carnage. Cocoa broke sharply lower with strong follow-through. Coffee and OJ remain in clear downtrends. No ambiguity here. The softs are back in a breakdown regime.
Grains: +3.44% (Previous: -3.81%)
A standout. Canola, oats, and corn all broke convincingly higher. Wheat was flat to weak, but the rest of the grain complex now exhibits trending structure. These are trend-worthy breakouts.
Meats: +0.20% (Previous: +0.57%)
The strength continues. Live and feeder cattle remain in sustained uptrends. Lean hogs pulled back but didn’t break structure. This sector remains a stealth leader.
Bonds: -0.29% (Previous: +0.55%)
Charts show indecision. Minor drift but no trend. Treasuries are consolidating in mid-range territory. Exposure likely minimal.
Currencies: +0.25% (Previous: +1.00%)
Some strength in EUR, GBP, and CHF, but not enough for clean trend conviction. The USD is drifting lower, but no dominant directional theme has emerged. Mixed signals across the board.
Crypto: +0.60% (Previous: +0.60%)
Bitcoin shows a consolidation just under its recent highs. No breakout yet, but the pattern supports long bias. Sideways action with an upward lean.
Volatility Index: -0.54% (Previous: -10.77%)
The VIX is sitting near year-to-date lows. Low and stable, confirming the risk-on backdrop but offering little for trend models.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

Oats: +11.92% – Signalling a clean breakout from a period of congestion
Heating Oil: +7.50% – Fuel-led rebound in energy
Corn / Platinum / Canola: +4.2% / +4.1% / +3.8% – Strong upward movement
Wheat / Soybean Oil / Crude Oil Brent: +3.7% / +3.5% / +2.6% – Grains and energy stand out
Nasdaq 100 / Bitcoin: +0.68% / +0.60% – Modest tech and crypto strength

Top Losers

Cocoa: -10.52% – Deep reversal after last week’s snapback
Natural Gas: -9.41% – Trendless and volatile
Coffee / Orange Juice: -5.82% / -5.25% – Softs turned south sharply
Nikkei 225 / Rough Rice: -2.01% / -3.10% – Asia and Ags weighed on portfolios

Portfolio View – Positioning and Impact

Energy: Mixed signals. Heating Oil gave a valid breakout, but WTI and Brent remain trapped in noisy ranges. Systems that re-entered longs likely only did so in Heating Oil. The rest still need confirmation.
Metals: A consistent support zone. Platinum is the leader with a decisive breakout. Gold holds trend strength, and silver remains constructive. This sector continues to do the heavy lifting for trend portfolios.
Grains: Now clearly trending. Oats, canola, corn, and soybeans all exhibit fresh breakouts. Models that rotated long last week are now seeing follow-through. One of the strongest clusters in the portfolio.
Softs: Decisively broken. Cocoa, coffee, and orange juice are all rolling over sharply with trend-confirming volume. Short setups were likely entered or reinforced mid-week. A rare trend alignment in this often erratic sector.
Equities: U.S. indices like S&P and Nasdaq are topping out near highs, but showing hesitation. The Nikkei and DAX broke down slightly. A turning point may be near. Some models may be tightening stops or preparing for reversals..
Bonds: No clear bias. Choppy and stuck in consolidation. Systems with long bond exposure likely remained flat or modestly down this week.
Currencies: Some directional hints in GBP, EUR, and CHF, but no major breakout. Weak USD helps but doesn’t create strong conviction yet. Most systems remain light in this space.
Crypto: Bitcoin sits in a flag just below its highs. Trend followers may be holding positions from earlier entries but will need a fresh breakout to scale further. For now, it’s a quiet contributor.
Volatility: Still in the basement. The VIX is inert, confirming the stable market tone but offering nothing trendable. Best left alone for now.

Final Reflections – The Ground Is Firming

This week felt different.

Not in the headline numbers… the SG Trend Index was flat, and many asset classes only moved modestly … but in the structure. The Trend Barometer jumped to 57. Grains broke cleanly. Metals held firm. Energy found traction in heating oil. And even as softs collapsed, they did so decisively, giving trend systems something tangible to work with.

Momentum is finding its feet, unevenly, selectively, but unmistakably.

We're not in full-blown breakout territory. Bonds are stuck. FX is mixed. Equities are pausing. But the weight of evidence is shifting. The signals are clearer. The participation broader. And the environment, finally, more trend-supportive.

For systematic traders, this is where patience pays. When noise gives way to structure, and structure becomes trend, the edge returns.

The footprints are forming. Let’s see where they lead.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

28/06/2025 by Naomi

“Just because it turned doesn’t mean it’s trending.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

The forest is stirring again. After a long stretch of choppy reversals and tactical retreats, directional movement is reemerging. But clarity is not uniform. A dramatic reversal in energy crushed recent longs. Meanwhile, equities lifted, precious metals broke higher, and the softs staged a surprise rebound.

The landscape is shifting. The challenge now is whether trend systems can stay nimble enough to ride the right wave.

“Green Shoots in the Ashes”

It was a week of high contrasts. Energies snapped hard lower, giving back multiple weeks of gains and punishing long-biased trend systems. Grains and commodity-linked currencies continued their descent. In contrast, precious metals and equities offered clean directional moves. Cocoa, oddly enough, staged a major comeback.

The trend picture is improving, but the environment remains fractured.

SG Trend Index Performance

Month-to-date (as of June 26): +0.97%
Year-to-date: -10.48%

(Previous week MTD: +0.25% | YTD: -11.11%)

The SG Trend Index pushed further into positive territory for the month, recovering ground from June’s earlier pullback. While the longer-term drawdown remains, the recent bounce suggests a tentative return of trend-following conditions.

TTU Trend Barometer: 50 Percent – Strong Environment

Previous reading: 45 Percent
10-day rate of change: Rising Weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer moved up into a solid “trend-supportive” range for the first time in weeks. Now at 50 percent, it reflects improving directional structure across a wider range of markets. It’s not yet a breakout regime, but the tide is turning.

“Fifty percent doesn’t mean go all-in. It means look sharp, the real moves might be starting.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The largest moves this week came from opposite corners. Energy markets extended their rally. Softs crumbled. Bonds and metals added modest support. Most other asset classes offered little contribution, either positive or negative.

Asset Class Breakdown – The Whipsaws and Breakouts

Energy: -8.44% (Previous: +4.78%)
A violent reversal. WTI, Brent, and Heating Oil collapsed, wiping out recent gains. Long positions were broadly hit.
Metals: +3.14% (Previous: +0.41%)
Strong breakouts in Platinum and Palladium. Gold and Copper also supported.
Equities: +3.65% (Previous: -0.05%)
A bounce across global indexes. Nikkei, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 led the charge.
Soft Commodities: +1.53% (Previous: -5.71%)
A big reversal week. Cocoa surged nearly 10 percent. Coffee and OJ stabilized.
Grains: -3.81% (Previous: -0.08%)
Broad pressure. Shorts in Corn, Wheat, and Soybean Meal worked. Canola fell hardest.
Meats: +0.57% (Previous: +0.14%)
Another week of quiet gains in cattle and feeder markets.
Bonds: +0.55% (Previous: +0.26%)
Steady, supportive action across durations.
Currencies: +1.00% (Previous: -0.68%)
The US dollar weakened again. Minor trends emerging, but fragmentation remains.
Volatility Index: -10.77% (Previous: -2.69%)
Another week of fading fear. VIX collapsed. Short-vol strategies saw brief traction.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

Cocoa: +9.52% – A massive snapback after prior weakness.
Palladium & Platinum: +8.73% / +5.64% – Strong technical breakouts.
Nikkei 225, Copper, Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin – Broad risk-on strength.

Top Losers

Crude Oil (WTI & Brent): -11.88% / -11.48% – Reversal carnage.
Heating Oil & Gasoline: -10.82% / -10.87% – Momentum broken, hard.
Grains: Canola -6.47%, Wheat -7.24% – Short setups rewarded.
Soybean complex, Natural Gas, Silver – Continued drift or renewed declines.

Portfolio View – Positioning and Impact

Energy: Trend followers were caught on the wrong side. The clean rally of recent weeks reversed violently. Models still holding long exposure likely saw significant give-back. Short re-entries were unlikely in time to recover losses.
Metals: A bright spot. Platinum and Palladium surged, with Gold and Copper contributing. Systems positioned long in these breakouts had a solid week. Silver was softer, but the complex overall turned net positive.
Grains: Short setups paid off. Canola, Wheat, and Soybean Oil led the move lower. While some reversals within the space muddied the waters, the overall tilt remained bearish. Trend followers aligned short saw results.
Equities: Supportive action across major indices. Most trend models likely held or added to long positions in the Nasdaq, Nikkei, and S&P. Not explosive, but finally directional.
Softs: Cocoa’s rally was sharp and sudden, catching some systems off guard. Models still short were likely stopped. Others flipped long in time to benefit. The rest of the sector saw stability return.
Bonds: Continued to act as a smoothing agent. Mild positive returns helped portfolios manage risk.
Currencies: Still choppy. The dollar fell again, but without coordinated strength in majors. Minor gains in NZD, GBP, and CHF. Exposure likely minimal.
Crypto: Bitcoin drifted higher, sitting in a stable up-channel. No breakout signal, but steady enough to support flat or long-biased positions.
Volatility: Short-vol traders got some reward this week, but trend systems likely stayed cautious. The VIX's drop offered no sustained signal beyond a one-week reprieve.

Final Reflections – Green Shoots in the Ashes

This week brought signs of renewal. Trend strength improved. Metals and equities offered real follow-through. Grains and softs moved with conviction. But the whipsaw in energy was a sharp reminder that even when the environment improves, posture still matters.

The SG Trend Index ticked up. The TTU Trend Barometer moved above the neutral zone. Structure is returning.

But the lesson remains: trend following is not about anticipating the fire. It’s about reading the smoke, staying positioned, and letting the heat build.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

21/06/2025 by Naomi

“When the forest goes quiet, it's not peace. It's a warning.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend following.

After the violent reversals of last week, markets eased into a more balanced state. Volatility dropped. Energy remained strong. Softs collapsed. And metals held their ground. While the pace slowed, the message was clear: the trend environment is still unsettled, but systems are beginning to find their feet again.

This was not a week of chaos, but one of quiet sorting.

“Smouldering Moves, Sharper Lines”

Momentum continued in pockets. Energy surged once more, this time offering clearer participation for trend systems. Soft commodities broke apart. Grains stalled. Equities drifted without purpose. Currencies remained tangled in rangebound noise. Metals, on the other hand, held steady and offered stable contribution.

It was not an explosion. It was a slow burn that exposed where the real signals were and where the noise remained.

SG Trend Index Performance

Month-to-date (as of June 19): +0.25%
Year-to-date: -11.11%

(Previous week MTD: +1.50% | YTD: -10.00%)

The SG Trend Index gave back ground this week, slipping into mild retreat. Although last week's strong rebound lifted hopes, this week reminded us that the broader environment remains challenging. Year-to-date figures continue to reflect the tough terrain faced by trend-following systems.

TTU Trend Barometer: 45 Percent – Neutral

Previous reading: 50 Percent
10-day rate of change: Rising Weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer edged lower from 50 percent to 45 percent, holding near the midpoint of the spectrum. Trend strength is still present but not widely distributed. Some sectors show strong directional movement, while others remain in limbo. The weak rise in the 10-day rate-of-change offers a hint of optimism, but caution is still warranted.

“Forty-five percent is not cold, but it is not quite warm enough to relax.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Asset Class Breakdown – Sorting the Field

Energy: +4.78% (Previous: +6.87%)
Natural gas and heating oil continued to climb. This time, systems were better positioned and captured more of the upside.
Metals: +0.41% (Previous: +0.57%)
A stable week for gold, platinum, and silver. Trends remained intact and supportive.
Equities: -0.05% (Previous: -1.54%)
Directionless. Markets moved sideways, offering little for trend models.
Soft Commodities: -5.71% (Previous: -1.56%)
The selloff deepened. Orange juice, cocoa, and coffee all broke down sharply.
Grains: -0.08% (Previous: +1.12%)
A flat week. Soybean oil held up, but most grain markets lost direction.
Meats: +0.14% (Previous: -0.76%)
A mild recovery. Livestock markets showed some stabilization.
Bonds: +0.26% (Previous: +0.68%)
Quiet and steady. A modest gain helped balance portfolios.
Currencies: -0.68% (Previous: +0.34%)
FX markets reversed. No clear trends emerged.
Volatility Index: -2.69% (Previous: +13.59%)
Volatility faded again, removing what little edge short-vol strategies had last week.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

This week’s market action delivered a mix of surprise rallies and sharp reversals. Energy contracts stole the spotlight with explosive gains, while previously trending sectors like meats and softs lost momentum. Below is a snapshot of the standout movers driving system outcomes.

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

Natural Gas: +8.80 Percent – A strong breakout with broad trend system participation.
Heating Oil, Gasoline, Brent Crude: +4 to +7 Percent – A continuation of last week’s surge, now with clearer structure.
Soybean Oil, Wheat, Platinum – Markets that remained steady and contributed positively.

Top Losers

Orange Juice: -13.86 Percent – A full collapse. Prior parabolic moves gave way to a sharp decline.
Coffee, Cocoa: -9.00 and -7.81 Percent – Continued reversals. Former trend leaders now in freefall.
Oats, Corn, Cotton – Grains and fibres were hit across the board.
Silver, CAD, AUD – Weakness spread into metals and commodity-linked currencies.

Portfolio View – What the Moves Meant for Systems

Energy: This time, the rally came with better system alignment. WTI, Brent, Heating Oil, and Gasoline all broke cleanly to the upside, and many models that had reversed or flipped long captured meaningful gains. Natural Gas, while less aggressive, maintained its strength. The difference this week was structure—trend followers had time to position, and the trend held.
Metals: Still consistent, but more nuanced. Platinum continues to lead with vertical strength. Gold and Silver remain constructive, though showing minor pullbacks. Systems with long exposure across the complex still benefited, but short setups in the weaker metals like Palladium were also in play. Overall, a supportive sector, but with divergence emerging.
Soft Commodities: A painful unwind for long-biased systems. Cocoa, Coffee, and Orange Juice broke lower in size, completing their transition from outlier leaders to deep corrections. Trend followers positioned short likely caught the reversal, but those still holding long were punished. The breakdown was broad and continues to accelerate.
Grains: Mixed signals. Soybean Oil and Canola are trending higher and offered gains for long trades. But most other contracts—Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Oats—moved sideways or softened. Trend followers saw divergent outcomes depending on their exposure. The sector offered opportunity, but only in a few names.
Equities: Still in drift mode. Most indexes are pausing near highs without follow-through. Trend signals remain weak and fragmented, with a few small short setups appearing in the Nasdaq and Nikkei. Overall, not hostile, but not helpful either.
Volatility: The VIX bounced slightly, but not enough to generate signal. Short-vol setups lost their edge weeks ago, and this week offered little new. Trend followers are likely flat or holding minimal exposure.
Bonds: Calm and modestly positive. The curve nudged higher, with all durations showing small gains. No breakouts occurred, but trend models with long exposure booked mild profit. Bonds acted as a stabilizer rather than a return engine.
Currencies: Still lacking conviction. The US dollar fell again, but without coordinated strength across the majors. A few short setups against the dollar may have worked, but choppiness across AUD, NZD, and JPY made this space frustrating. Direction remains fragmented.
Crypto: Bitcoin stayed elevated but rangebound. No clean breakout or reversal. Systems are likely flat or running with tight trailing stops. The signal remains muted.

Final Reflections – Trading the Space Between

Markets are not roaring, but they are not silent either. There is noise in some corners and structure in others. Systems that captured the energy surge or held onto metal exposure saw results. Others, particularly those in softs and FX, continued to struggle.

The SG Trend Index gave back part of its gains, showing how fragile this recovery remains. The TTU Trend Barometer held just under 50 percent, still within neutral but signaling that opportunity exists for those in the right places.

This is not a time for all-in conviction. It is a time for disciplined participation, focused on sectors showing real traction. Some trends are taking hold. Others are breaking down.

In these conditions, capital is not won through prediction. It is preserved through posture.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

14/06/2025 by Naomi

“The Breakout and the Backdraft“

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend following.

The week began with momentum, but it ended with a jolt.

Trend followers entered the week short energies, a position that had been paying off. But by midweek, the energy complex ignited. Crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil launched upward in a powerful rally. Then came the twist. Overnight, price action turned violently, forcing rapid exits and hitting systems that couldn’t adapt fast enough.

Volatility spiked. The VIX surged more than 13 percent. What had looked like clean structure became a backdraft. Once again, the environment reminded us that in these markets, strong conviction can quickly become exposure.

“Caught Between Signal and Smoke”

Gold, platinum, and silver continued their steady climbs. Soybean oil surged. Grains remained firm. But energies dominated the week’s story. Systems that had been short were caught off guard as prices exploded higher.

The sharp reversal didn’t just impact energy exposure. It shifted the emotional tone of the entire week. Trend followers were forced to cut, reassess, and reposition. The signal-to-noise ratio narrowed again.

SG Trend Index Performance

Month-to-date (as of June 12): +1.50%
Year-to-date: -10.00%

(Previous week MTD: +0.63% | YTD: -10.77%)

The SG Trend Index extended its recovery this week, gaining nearly one percent over the previous reading. After months of grind and setback, this marks a second consecutive positive week. The year-to-date loss remains significant, but systems appear to be adapting. The reversal in energies likely disrupted many portfolios, but strength in metals and grains helped steady the broader trend engine.

TTU Trend Barometer: 50 Percent – Strong

Previous reading: 39 Percent
10-day rate of change: Rising Moderately

The TTU Trend Barometer has jumped to 50 percent, placing it at the upper edge of neutral and pointing toward stronger trend conditions. This is the highest reading in recent weeks and reflects broader improvement in cross-market structure. Systems are beginning to find clearer signals across a wider range of instruments.

“Fifty percent is no longer cold. It is a sign that trend conditions are heating up.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Momentum shifted, and for some sectors, it flipped.

Energy and metals extended their strength, delivering solid upside for systems that had adjusted in time. Grains held steady. Softs and meats gave back gains. Volatility snapped back violently after a sharp drop the week before. Equities rolled over following two weeks of upward drift.

Asset Class Breakdown –From Flat to Flickering

Volatility Index: +13.59% (Previous: -6.85%)
A complete reversal. Last week’s collapse in volatility gave way to a sharp spike, which disrupted breakout systems and short-volatility strategies alike.
Energy: +6.87% (Previous: +4.64%)
Another powerful leg higher. Unlike last week, most trend followers were short going into the move. The result was system stress, whipsaws, and abrupt exits.
Metals: +0.57% (Previous: +6.92%)
Positive movement continued, although with less force. Metals remain one of the few consistently supportive sectors.
Grains: +1.12% (Previous: +1.07%)
Gains were steady again this week. Soybean oil and canola offered directional structure and contributed positively.
Meats: -0.76% (Previous: +3.47%)
The uptrend faded. Cattle and hogs stalled and reversed, dragging on portfolio performance.
Equity Indexes: -1.54% (Previous: +1.59%)
Equities turned lower as volatility returned. The upward drift lost momentum and reversed.
Soft Commodities: -1.56% (Previous: -0.20%)
Losses deepened across the board. Sugar, cocoa, and orange juice extended their downtrends with no signs of reversal.
Bonds: +0.68% (Previous: -0.57%)
Bonds staged a modest recovery. After last week’s decline, they added some balance to portfolios under pressure from the energy reversal.
Currencies: +0.34% (Previous: +0.17%)
The currency complex remained quiet. The euro and Swiss franc led a slight push higher.
Crypto: +0.90% (Previous: -0.07%)
Bitcoin returned to positive territory. Price action remained stable and added a small tailwind for systems involved.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

Crude Oil (WTI and Brent): Both contracts surged more than 13 percent. What began as a short-covering move turned into a full-blown breakout that caught many short systems off guard.
Heating Oil and Gasoline: Strong gains across the refined products complex supported the energy surge.
Platinum, Gold, and Lumber: These markets continued to trend higher, contributing positively to diversified portfolios.
Soybean Oil and Canola: Delivered steady upside. These contracts helped balance out turbulence in other commodity sectors.

Top Losers

Cocoa: Fell nearly 5 percent this week. The downward slide has continued with no sign of stabilizing.
Natural Gas: Dropped sharply in contrast to crude oil. The divergence added to cross-market noise.
DAX and Euro Stoxx 50: European equities declined as risk sentiment weakened.
Orange Juice and Coffee: Extended their pullbacks. Both have moved from prior strength into deeper correction phases.
Live Cattle: Reversed recent gains. Momentum has now clearly broken in the meat complex.

Portfolio View – What the Moves Meant for Systems

Energy: The most disruptive sector of the week. Many trend followers were short heading into the rally, and the violent upside move forced rapid exits. What initially looked like a breakout turned into a source of significant stress..
Metals: A bright spot for long exposure. Gold, platinum, and silver continued to trend higher with relatively stable behaviour, providing consistent contribution to diversified models.
Grains: Modest but constructive. Soybean oil and canola offered steady upside, while other grain contracts added little but did not hurt.
Softs: Still on the defensive. Cocoa, sugar, and orange juice extended their declines. Trend structure remains weak, offering limited opportunity on either side.
Meats: The trend has broken down. After weeks of quiet strength, cattle and hogs reversed, creating losses and signalling potential regime shifts in this complex.
Equities: Downward rotation resumed. After a short recovery phase, equity indexes rolled over again as volatility returned. Trend signals remain shallow and inconsistent.
Bonds: Provided a small degree of stability. Gains were not dramatic but helped offset losses from more volatile sectors.
Currencies: Low activity and low contribution. FX markets remained quiet, with no dominant trends emerging across major pairs.
Crypto: Added mild support. Bitcoin remained directionally positive and stable, contributing slightly to portfolios engaged in digital assets.

Final Reflections – Rebuilding in a Reactive Market

This week was a reminder that trend following is not just about spotting direction. It is about managing exposure when direction turns without warning.

Systems entered the week with improving posture. Metals held strong. Grains supported. Energy looked weak and short setups were common. But the dramatic reversal in crude and products forced a reset. Overnight moves cut deep, especially for models that were not quick to adjust.

Despite the volatility, the SG Trend Index finished higher for the second week in a row. The TTU Trend Barometer jumped to 50 percent, a firm shift toward more constructive territory. Trend structure is returning not just gradually, but with broader support. While volatility remains a factor, the environment is transitioning from reactive to directional. Systems that stay focused and disciplined may begin to find more sustainable edge.

This is a moment for discipline over aggression. For measured exposure over bold conviction. The path ahead is still forming, and for now, systems must stay agile and focused on preservation as much as participation.

The fire is back in parts of the market. But it is not yet controlled.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

07/06/2025 by Naomi

“A Flicker, Not a Flame—But It's a Start”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend-following.

After weeks of trend breakdowns and systemic whiplash, the first full week of June delivered something different—not clarity, but possibility. A subtle shift is underway. Metals surged. Meats extended strength. Equities steadied. The storm hasn’t passed—but the skies are lighter.

Markets remain tentative. Systems remain cautious. But the tone has changed. Drawdowns are slowing. Signals are reforming. And some sectors are beginning to pulse with directional life again.

“A Flicker, Not a Flame…But It's a Start”

This week gave trend followers a hint of reprieve.

Metals lit up…platinum, palladium, and silver all staged double-digit rallies. Meats and grains offered supportive traction. Equities edged higher with greater balance. Even volatility stepped back again, reinforcing a calmer surface.

It’s not a full reversal. But systems leaning long in these sectors began to see traction. The question now: can this momentum build, or will it fade like so many recent sparks?

SG Trend Index Performance

MTD (as of June 5): +0.63%
YTD: -10.77%
(Last week MTD: -2.06% | YTD: -11.19%)

A flicker of green. The SG Trend Index finally posted a positive MTD return, breaking the string of drawdown weeks. It's only a mild recovery, but for trend followers still reeling from May’s reversals, it’s a welcome shift. Year-to-date losses remain heavy, but the bleeding has slowed.

TTU Trend Barometer: 36% – Moderately Weak

Last week: 43%
10-day rate-of-change: Rising Weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer slipped slightly from last week’s 43% to 36%, just below the neutral zone. But the 10-day rate-of-change continues to rise weakly, suggesting a bottoming process may be underway. We’re not out of the cold yet, but systems are no longer fully frozen.

“Below 40% is cold. At 36%, we’re still there… but warming from underneath.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

This week brought warmth back into the trend landscape. Metals surged on strong bullish momentum, with energy following close behind. Meats extended their quiet rise, and equities posted another modest gain. Volatility continued its collapse, dropping nearly 7%, and even grains and currencies turned slightly supportive.

The trend environment isn’t on fire… but it’s no longer frozen.

Asset Class Breakdown –From Flat to Flickering

Metals: +6.92% (Last week: -2.62%)
A full reversal and then some. Platinum, palladium, and silver led the charge, delivering standout gains across the board. From sharp correction to clear breakout in just one week.
Energy: +4.64% (Last week: -2.98%)
Back from the brink. WTI, Brent, and heating oil posted strong directional moves, reversing last week’s losses and signalling renewed trend potential.
Meats: +3.47% (Last week: +0.72%)
This quiet sector keeps climbing. Cattle and hogs continued their consistent drift upward, now gaining momentum week-on-week.
Equities: +1.59% (Last week: +1.56%)
Stable and steady. Tech and broad indices built on last week’s bounce. Not explosive, but systems tracking long are finally seeing follow-through.
Grains: +1.07% (Last week: -0.51%)
Wheat and oats led a subtle recovery, helping grains return to positive ground. Still mixed, but trend clarity is building.
Currencies: +0.17% (Last week: -0.42%)
A marginal gain after recent drift. FX remains muted, but this week's shift back into green territory is a small relief.
Soft Commodities: -0.20% (Last week: -0.74%)
Still under pressure. Coffee recovered, but sugar and cocoa dragged the complex lower. No trend resurgence here… yet.
Bonds: -0.57% (Last week: +0.64%)
Another turn. After last week’s bounce, bonds slid again as yields firmed. The chop continues in fixed income.
Crypto: -0.07% (New this week)
Minimal movement. Digital assets contributed little to trend environments, remaining subdued.
Volatility Index (VIX): -6.85% (Last week: -8.81%)
Volatility continues its retreat. The sharpest move of the week, but as the VIX sinks, so too does trend system opportunity in volatility-based models.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

This week brought real leadership back to the board. The metals complex lit up, while grains and energy joined the charge. On the downside, sugar and cocoa extended their slide, and bonds fell back into chop. It’s still early—but the return of strong directional movers is a promising signal for trend systems.

Top Market Movers

Biggest Gainers

Palladium: +13.96% – Exploded higher. A classic trend breakout after months of drift.
Silver: +8.59% / Platinum: +7.63% – The metals rally was broad and powerful.
Oats: +6.85% / Wheat: +5.96% – Surprise strength in grains, reversing last week’s drift.
Heating Oil / Brent Crude / WTI: +4–5% – Energy snapped back hard after recent weakness.
Lean Hogs: +3.33% – Quietly consistent. Momentum building.

Biggest Losers

Sugar: -5.42% / Cocoa: -3.98% – Softs continue their correction phase. No stability yet.
Bonds (e.g. 30Y, TLT): ~-0.5% to -1.0% – A soft fade, unwinding last week’s gains.
Cotton: -1.91% – Another soft commodity under pressure.
Volatility (VIX): -6.85% – Not a directional trade for most, but a signal of suppressed edge in short-term breakout systems.

Portfolio View – What the Moves Meant for Systems

Metals & Energy: Clear directional moves benefited trend systems on both sides, long metals, short energy last week, then long energy this week. These sectors offered tradable structure at last.
Meats: Persistent trends remain. Systems positioned either way have had clean entries, with upside momentum dominating this week.
Equities: Trending higher again. Long equity systems remain engaged, with continued support across U.S. and global indices.
Grains: A diverse landscape. Oats, wheat, and canola showed some upside potential, while corn and soybeans are stabilizing within broader ranges. Trend systems may be split between breakout and reversion signals across these instruments.
Softs: More complex. Sugar, cotton, and coffee remain under pressure, favouring short trend signals. Orange juice shows early signs of long reversal, while cocoa and lumber are consolidating in no-man’s land.
Bonds: Another whipsaw week. Directional conviction remains elusive… positions both long and short have struggled to hold gains.
Currencies & Crypto: Directionless drift. Signals lacked follow-through, with most systems sitting neutral or taking minor noise-based trades.
Volatility: Compressed again. Falling VIX continues to reduce breakout opportunities and limits the effectiveness of volatility-sensitive systems.

Final Reflections – Still Cold, But Cracking

This week didn’t break the drawdown—but it bent it.

After months of systemic stress and grinding reversals, something shifted. Trend followers aren’t out of the woods, but they’re no longer walking in circles. Key sectors like metals, energy, and meats finally gave directional signals with follow-through. Grains and equities joined in… tentatively, but with intent. Even the SG Trend Index found footing.

Yet the terrain remains uneven. Softs are fragmented. Bonds can’t decide. And the TTU Trend Barometer, while rising weakly, still hovers just below neutral. The edge is fragile. The signal-to-noise ratio is improving… but barely.

So what’s the message?

Patience is working. Structure is emerging. We’re not seeing fireworks, but we are seeing embers. And in trend following, that’s where fire begins.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

31/05/2025 by Naomi

“When the fog thins, it’s not clarity—it’s just a shift in the shadows.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend-following.

After a turbulent May filled with softs reversals and volatility spikes, the final week offered no clear reprieve—just subtler shifts. Energy and metals gave back gains, while equities clawed higher. But beneath the surface, signals remain muted, with few markets offering sustained conviction.

The landscape is still cold. But it's no longer chaotic. Just… indecisive.

“Signals Weaken—But the Shakeout Slows”

After last week’s turbulence, trend systems this week experienced less pain—but little progress.

Energy and metals faded sharply, snapping recent breakouts. Grains and softs continued their drift lower, while equities showed modest strength. Volatility collapsed, dragging the VIX down nearly 9% and capping the week’s most notable move.

Not a rally. Not a crash. Just a cooling—and while trend models remain constrained, they could breathe a little easier.

SG Trend Index Performance

MTD (as of May 29): -2.06%
YTD: -11.19%
(Last week MTD: -2.56% | YTD: -11.65%)

The SG Trend Index ticked slightly higher, easing its drawdown from last week’s deeper low. But it remains firmly in the red, weighed down by recent sector reversals. Systematic trend followers are still facing headwinds, though the violence of recent weeks has moderated.

TTU Trend Barometer: 43% – Neutral

Last week: 34%
10-day rate-of-change: Rising Moderately

The TTU Trend Barometer staged a late-week resurgence, finishing at 43%—a shift back into neutral territory. It’s not a trend breakout, but it’s no longer a freeze. Systems may be sensing the first stirrings of structure beneath the noise.

“Below 40% is cold. At 43%? The thaw has started.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Volatility collapsed. Equities climbed. Meats and bonds moved mildly higher. But most asset classes—energy, metals, softs, grains—faltered again. A low-energy week overall, with only equities offering a flicker of momentum.

Asset Class Breakdown – Cooling After the Storm

Energy: -2.98% (Prev: -0.62%)
Crude, gas, and heating oil slid—reversing last week’s breakouts.
Metals: -2.62% (Prev: +5.88%)
A sharp correction after last week’s surge. Gold, silver, and platinum all pulled back.
Equities: +1.56% (Prev: -2.39%)
Modest recovery across indices. Tech bounced, while broader names held.
Soft Commodities: -0.74% (Prev: -0.08%)
Continued fade in coffee, sugar, and cotton. Cocoa remains unstable.
Grains: -0.51% (Prev: +2.23%)
Corn and wheat resumed their decline. Trend signals weakening.
Meats: +0.72% (Prev: +0.40%)
Lean hogs and live cattle found traction. Quiet but consistent.
Bonds: +0.64% (Prev: -0.47%)
A small bounce in fixed income as yields eased.
Currencies: -0.42% (Prev: +1.42%)
USD strength returned. FX drifted back into indecision.
Volatility Index: -8.81% (Prev: +13.55%)
Volatility snapped back. Calm returned—but not confidence.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Biggest Gainers

Oats: +6.62% – A surprise outlier in a quiet grain market—though still trading within range.
Orange Juice: +4.59% – Still climbing this week off a low base following a significant slump, resisting the broader softs downtrend.
Lean Hogs: +3.25% – Quiet breakout—early signs of a potential sustained move.
Rough Rice / Nikkei 225 / Nasdaq 100 – Tech and Asia led equity strength

Biggest Losers

Natural Gas: -8.81% – Heavy downside reversal
Coffee: -5.21% / Soybean Oil: -4.96% / Corn: -3.48% – Softs and grains weakened
Heating Oil, Platinum, Gold – Gave back recent momentum

Portfolio View – What the Moves Meant for Systems

Energy & Metals: Reversals dominated. Last week’s strength became this week’s losses.
Grains & Softs: Bearish continuation. Long signals remain underwater.
Equities: A modest bright spot. Some systems may have caught the bounce.
Meats: Quietly supportive. A rare zone of trend persistence.
Volatility: Major retreat. Risk metrics re-stabilized—but signals remain unclear.
Currencies & Bonds: Mixed. Limited follow-through in either direction.

Final Reflections – A Glimmer Beyond the Fog

This wasn’t a violent week. But it wasn’t a clear one either.

Trend followers are navigating a muted, two-faced environment: Volatility falls, yet conviction is absent. Equities rise, even as energy declines. Oats surge, while most commodities stall.

The SG Trend Index is less negative. And the TTU Trend Barometer has climbed back toward neutral. It’s not a breakout—but it might be the first hint of structure emerging from drift.

In this environment, it’s not about chasing fire—it’s about staying lit.
Because in these markets, trends don’t disappear. They just wait for silence to speak.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

24/05/2025 by Naomi

“Cocoa Cracks, Volatility Roars—Signals Scatter”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend-following.

After last week’s violent surges in softs and reversals in metals, this week brought a fresh rotation—less continuation, more contradiction. Volatility spiked, metals firmed, and equities took a hit. But the most shocking move? Cocoa collapsed, flipping from outlier to outlier-in-reverse.

“Cocoa Cracks, Volatility Roars”

The fourth week of May reversed many of last week’s themes.

Volatility exploded, driven by macro jitters and renewed equity weakness. Softs—last week’s darling—buckled, as cocoa plunged nearly 10%. Meanwhile, metals rebounded sharply, and currencies showed broad-based gains against the USD.

This wasn’t a gentle unwind. It was a shakeout that reshuffled winners and losers again, catching many systems on the wrong foot.

SG Trend Index Performance

MTD (as of May 22): -2.56%
YTD: -11.65%
(Last week MTD: -3.31% | YTD: -12.32%)

A slight recovery in the SG Trend Index from last week’s steeper drop, but the index remains deep in drawdown territory. Trend systems continue to struggle amid sharp reversals and short-lived bursts of momentum. Energy, bonds, and equity indices again offered limited traction.

TTU Trend Barometer: 34% – Moderately Weak

Last week: 27%
10-day rate-of-change: Rising Weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer ticked up to 34% but remains in a “cold” environment for trend-followers. The brief lift is welcome, but the terrain remains tough—choppy, erratic, and hostile to sustained trends.

“Below 40% is cold. At 34%? Still deep in the icebox.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

This week flipped last week’s script. Volatility soared while equities slipped. Metals outperformed, softs reversed, and grains rebounded slightly. Bonds and energy drifted lower, while currency strength reflected renewed macro positioning.

Asset Class Breakdown – Whipsaw Continues

Energy: -0.62% (Prev: -0.39%)
Minor weakness across crude contracts. Momentum absent.
Metals: +5.88% (Prev: -1.92%)
Big rebound. Platinum, copper, and gold all surged.
Equities: -2.39% (Prev: +3.25%)
Reversal week. Tech leaders faltered, dragging indices down.
Soft Commodities: -0.08% (Prev: +4.14%)
Cocoa collapsed, offsetting gains in orange juice and cotton.
Grains: +2.23% (Prev: -0.22%)
Recovery led by wheat and corn.
Meats: +0.40% (Prev: +0.33%)
Quiet but positive. Still largely range-bound.
Bonds: -0.47% (Prev: -0.69%)
Yields edged higher again. Fixed income remains choppy.
Currencies: +1.42% (Prev: -0.33%)
Broad-based USD weakness lifted other majors.
Volatility Index: +13.55% (Prev: -16.39%)
The VIX roared back. Uncertainty returns to the surface.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Biggest Gainers

VIX: +13.55% – Volatility snapped back sharply.
Orange Juice: +10.69% – Softs diverged. Still climbing.
Platinum: +10.10% – Strong comeback.
Copper: +5.91% – Strong base metals rally.
Gold: +5.35% – Safe haven flows returned.

Biggest Losers

Cocoa: -9.49% – Massive reversal. Outlier snapped.
Russell 2000: -3.71% – Small caps under pressure.
S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100: -2.57%, -2.39% – Tech-led selloff.
USD: -1.93% – Broad-based weakness across G10.
Coffee: -1.60% – Faded further after last week’s drop.

Portfolio View – What the Moves Meant for Systems

Soft Commodities: A whipsaw zone. Cocoa’s crash likely hit long systems, while OJ and cotton offered mixed returns.
Metals: The week’s winners—finally some trend recovery.
Equities: Difficult week. Major indices dropped hard.
Currencies: Some flow potential returned, especially for long non-USD exposures.
Volatility: Finally sparked. But it likely disrupted risk models more than helped trend signals.
Bonds and Energy: Still offering little. Chop remains dominant.

Final Reflections – Whiplash Is Not a Trend

The market is moving, but it’s not trending—at least not in the way systems like.

This week saw another hard flip: from cocoa crashes to copper surges, and from complacency to volatility spikes. The SG Trend Index remains negative, and the Trend Barometer, while slightly higher, is still flashing warning signs.

For many trend-followers, these conditions aren't just tough—they're humbling.

It’s not about catching every outlier—it’s about enduring the storm until the signal clears.

“When clarity is absent, discipline is everything.”

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

17/05/2025 by Naomi

“In markets, some melt while others surge—the heat just moves.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend-following.

After April’s sharp swings and early May’s rebalancing, markets this week delivered a more chaotic cadence. There was no clear path—just flashes of strength and pockets of collapse. Systems adjusted on the fly, chasing clarity through the churn.

“Softs Surge While Metals Melt”

The third week of May delivered extremes in both directions.
Softs surged with explosive momentum, led by cocoa and orange juice. Equities climbed, riding tech’s tailwinds. But metals melted, bonds reversed, and volatility collapsed.
This wasn’t just a rotation—it was a rupture. Momentum shifted violently across asset classes. Systems caught some moves, missed others, and were whipsawed in between.

SG Trend Index Performance

MTD (as of May 15): -3.31%
YTD: -12.32%
(Last week MTD: -1.29% | YTD: -10.49%)

The SG Trend Index deepened its drawdown this week. Systems that showed resilience last week are now exposed, as energy, metals, and bonds lost their footing again. While softs delivered strong countertrend moves, their suddenness offered little entry for slower systems.

TTU Trend Barometer: 27% – Very Weak

Last week: 36%
10-day rate-of-change: Falling Rapidly

The TTU Trend Barometer plunged to 27%, marking one of the weakest environments in recent months. Only a handful of clean trends remain, and systems across the board are feeling the crunch.

“Below 40% is cold. At 27%? It's coming close to deep freeze.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

This week’s standout shift came from Soft Commodities, which staged a sharp rally. Equities also pushed higher, particularly tech. Meanwhile, Metals unwound recent gains, and Bonds reversed once more. Volatility crashed further.

Asset Class Breakdown – Wild Rotation

Energy: -0.39% (Prev: +3.04%)
Momentum faded. Crude and Nat Gas stalled, giving back last week’s breakout.
Metals: -1.92% (Prev: +2.22%)
Gold and silver dropped, reversing their prior bounce.
Equities: +3.25% (Prev: +0.45%)
Tech leadership returned, lifting major indices.
Soft Commodities: +4.14% (Prev: -0.98%)
Cocoa and OJ exploded higher—offering rare strength.
Grains: -0.22% (Prev: -1.32%)
Losses continued, but selling pressure moderated.
Meats: +0.33% (Prev: +0.38%)
Still subdued. Some livestock names remain range-bound.
Bonds: -0.69% (Prev: -0.33%)
A reversal. Yields rose again, putting pressure on long bond trades and short-term interest rates in particular.
Currencies: -0.33% (Prev: -0.35%)
Further drift. No clear directional trends.
Volatility Index: -16.39% (Prev: -2.37%)
Volatility collapsed. The calm is becoming extreme.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Biggest Gainers

Cocoa: +18.94% – Massive breakout. Led the softs surge.
Orange Juice: +9.77% – Parabola resumes. Volatility remains high.
Nasdaq 100: +6.27% – Tech strength drove the index higher.
Lumber / S&P 500 / Heating Oil: +5.33%, +4.76%, +3.58% – Mixed sector strength in cyclical names.

Biggest Losers

VIX: -16.39% – Calm again. Complacency now dominant.
Natural Gas: -12.38% – Reversal from recent strength.
Gold: -4.15% – Precious metals unwound quickly.
Coffee / Cotton / Corn: -5.73%, -2.21%, -1.50% – Mixed moves across softs and grains, with sharp drawdowns in coffee and modest declines elsewhere.

Portfolio View – What the Moves Meant for Systems

Soft Commodities: Strongest performers, but their violent reversals may have caught systems flat-footed.
Metals: Hurt portfolios after a strong prior week.
Equities: A rare bright spot—especially for models long Nasdaq or tech indices.
Volatility: Collapsing vols stifle trend opportunities.
Currencies & Bonds: Continued noise and indecision make for choppy trades, with short-term interest rates proving the most difficult.

Final Reflections – A Market Without Memory

We’re back in that strange place again—where last week’s leaders become this week’s laggards, and nothing seems to stick.

The SG Trend Index fell sharply. The TTU Trend Barometer plunged to 27%, signalling a hostile environment for trend-followers. The brief sparks of strength in softs and equities came too fast for many to capitalize on.

In markets like these, systems aren’t just challenged—they’re tested. And the lesson this week? Sometimes survival means staying in the game, even when the signals are faint.

“In times like these, it’s not prediction that wins—it’s persistence.”

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

10/05/2025 by Naomi

“When the forest goes quiet, it's not peace—it's a warning.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend-following.

After April’s sharp volatility and tentative recovery, the first week of May offered a quieter, more measured tone. Markets didn’t surge—but they didn’t stumble either. Instead, we saw a cautious continuation of rebalancing, with trend signals beginning to stabilize.

The environment remains ambiguous, but systems are adjusting—seeking clarity not in the noise, but in the underlying patterns.

“Divergence Returns—With Bite”

The second week of May brought more churn than clarity.

Energy markets lit up. Metals bounced. But softs cracked further, and grains followed them lower. Equities held modestly firm—but the leadership looked different.

This wasn’t a broad-based rally or a broad-based retreat. It was a patchwork—and trend systems are feeling every stitch.

SG Trend Index Performance

MTD (as of May 8): -1.29%
YTD: -10.49%
(Last week MTD: -0.40% | YTD: -9.69%)

The SG Trend Index slipped further into drawdown territory. What looked like stabilization last week has proven short-lived, with losses resuming across several sectors. Momentum has not vanished—but it’s offering little shelter from this trendless churn.

TTU Trend Barometer: 36% – Moderately Weak

Last week: 48%
10-day rate-of-change: Falling Moderately

The TTU Trend Barometer continued its slide, falling from 48% to 36%—below the neutral threshold. Trend strength has decayed again, confirming what systems already feel: a weakening trend environment that lacks sustained direction across most markets.

“Below 40% is cold. And this week? The thermometer dropped.”

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Asset Class	This Week	Last Week	Δ
Volatility Index	-2.37%	-3.82%	↑ less decline
Grains	-1.32%	+0.88%	↓ reversal
Meats	+0.38%	+2.14%	↓ slowing
Bonds	-0.33%	+0.57%	↓ reversal
Energy	+3.04%	-1.01%	↑ sharp rebound
Metals	+2.22%	-1.45%	↑ reversal
Soft Commodities	-0.98%	-2.81%	↑ lesser pullback
Equity Index	+0.45%	+3.21%	↓ tapering
Currency	-0.35%	-0.15%	↓ slight weakening

This week’s standout shifts came from Energy and Metals, which flipped sharply from negative to positive momentum. Meanwhile, Grains, Meats, and Bonds reversed last week’s gains. Volatility continued to fall—but with diminishing payoff potential.

Asset Class Breakdown – Fractured Terrain

Energy: +3.04% (Prev: -1.01%): A sharp turnaround. Crude oil and natural gas delivered strong moves, finally providing clean breakouts after weeks of whipsawing.

Metals: +2.22% (Prev: -1.45%): Gold, platinum, and silver rallied, restoring life to long trades that looked under threat just one week ago.

Equities: +0.45% (Prev: +3.21%): Gains slowed. The tech-led bounce moderated, and leadership rotated into broader, more cyclical names.

Soft Commodities: -0.98% (Prev: -2.81%): Still retreating, though the selloff softened. Cocoa, coffee, and sugar are giving up their trend-leading status.

Grains: -1.32% (Prev: +0.88%): A clean reversal. Corn and wheat broke lower, dragging down systems leaning long.

Meats: +0.38% (Prev: +2.14%): Slower progress. Livestock trades that worked for weeks are showing signs of fading momentum.

Bonds: -0.33% (Prev: +0.57%): Another week, another direction. Bond markets remain erratic—tough terrain for trend systems.

Currencies: -0.35% (Prev: -0.15%): FX drifted further into stasis. There’s little conviction in the majors right now.

Volatility Index: -2.37% (Prev: -3.82%): Volatility keeps fading—but the edge is gone. Short-vol profits are behind us, and trend followers are now watching for the next catalyst.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Gains

Crude Oil (WTI): +4.75% – Breakout move after prior chop. Energy bulls finally got paid.
Gasoline RBOB / Nat Gas / Brent Crude: +4.52%, +4.33%, +4.23% – Broad-based surge across the energy complex.
Heating Oil: +3.93% – Momentum returned to refined fuels.
Cocoa / Sugar / Platinum: +3.64%, +3.6%, +3.52% – Soft commodities made a brief comeback—but may still be in transition.
Gold / Silver: +2.65%, +1.93% – Precious metals bounced. Systems positioned long saw moderate gains.

Biggest Market Declines

Orange Juice: -10.17% – The outlier breaks. After a parabolic run, OJ finally got squeezed.
Corn / Wheat / Ethanol: -4.1%, -4.05%, -3.5% – Grains cratered. Long trades unwound aggressively.
VIX: -2.37% – Continued calm. Short-vol trades are out of juice.
Softs & FX–Cotton (-2.47%), NZD (-0.59%), AUD (-0.51%) – Rotation into metals and energy came at the expense of prior leaders.

Portfolio View – What the Moves Meant for Systems

Energy & Metals: The stars of the week. Trend followers positioned long enjoyed clear signals and solid gains.
Grains & Softs: Under pressure. A reversal from prior strength puts these sectors back into uncertainty.
Equities: Still up but losing steam. The sharp April rally has cooled into slower movement.
Volatility: Eased again. Calm is no longer your friend—it’s your constraint.
Currencies & Bonds: Dead weight. Few trends, and fewer payoffs.

Final Reflections – A Fog with Flashes

We’re not in a quiet market—but we’re not in a coherent one either.

This week revealed what happens in the in-between: where some trends reignite while others die quickly. Where energy booms, and grains bust. Where volatility is low, but direction isn’t obvious.

The SG Trend Index weakened again. The TTU Trend Barometer fell to 36%, dipping below neutral. Trend followers aren’t out of the game—but the plays are fewer, the edges thinner.

Systems must now walk with care. It’s not about pouncing—it’s about positioning. Because while this week lit a few fires, most of the terrain remains shrouded in fog.

And in fog, clarity doesn’t shout.

It whispers.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

03/05/2025 by Naomi

“The fog hasn’t lifted—but we’re learning to move through it.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend-following.

The environment remains ambiguous, but systems are adjusting—seeking clarity not in the noise, but in the underlying patterns.

“The Fog Persists—But Footing Improves”

Markets entered May with less urgency and more balance. There was no breakout, no breakdown—just a steady, cautious recalibration as April’s turbulence faded further into the background.

Volatility continued to unwind. Equities climbed again. Commodities rotated with less conviction. But momentum, while present, lacked power.

What emerged this week was not clarity—but composure. The rally cooled, but it didn’t collapse. The leaders didn’t charge—but they didn’t retreat either.

Systems are still adapting, still probing the terrain for signals that endure—not just flickers in the fog.

SG Trend Index Performance

MTD (as of May 1): -0.40%
YTD: -9.69%

The SG Trend Index edged into more stable territory this week. While still negative month-to-date, the improvement from last week’s -5.72% MTD reading reflects a halt in the April drawdown.

Losses haven’t reversed—but they’ve decelerated. Systems are catching their breath, particularly those with equity and diversified commodity exposure. It’s a reprieve—not a reversal.

TTU Trend Barometer: 48% – Weakening Neutral

Last week: 50%
This week: 48%

10-day rate-of-change: Falling weakly

The Trend Barometer edged down to 48%, technically entering a weaker neutral zone. The 10-day rate of change has turned slightly negative, confirming this slight decline. There’s more trend strength than two weeks ago, but the signals are not accelerating—they're stabilizing. This is not a “hot” regime. It’s a transitional one—where conviction is hard-earned, and resilience still matters more than reach.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The rotation continues, but at a softer pace. Equities remained firm, while most other asset classes cooled. Volatility declined again. Commodities lost traction. Trend signals? Selective and subdued.

This week was less about leadership and more about levelling off.

Equity Indexes: +3.21%
Meats: +0.24%
Soft Commodities: -2.81%
Grains: -1.71%
Bonds: -0.32%
Metals: -1.45%
Currencies: -0.15%
Energy: -1.01%
Volatility Index (VIX): -3.82%

Asset Class Breakdown – Softer Tones, Smaller Signals

Volatility Index: -3.82% (Prev: -12.08%)
Volatility continued its descent, though at a slower rate. Short-vol positions unwound further—but the extreme payoff seen earlier has faded. The waters are calmer, but still opaque.

Grains: -1.71% (Prev: +0.88%)
A reversal week. Grain markets lost ground as recent upward momentum fizzled. Trend-followers long wheat or corn likely faced retracements.

Meats: +0.24% (Prev: +2.14%)
Momentum nearly stalled. The livestock trade that supported systems in recent weeks now looks indecisive, with only slight gains.

Bonds: -0.32% (Prev: +0.57%)
The bounce reversed. Bonds remain trendless, oscillating without direction. They continue to offer little value to directional systems.

Energy: -1.01% (Prev: -0.71%)
Crude and natural gas lost steam. The recent whipsaws in energy markets deepened, likely triggering reductions or stops in trend-following allocations.

Metals: -1.45% (Prev: +0.36%)
Gold and silver softened further. Last week’s stability gave way to modest weakness, interrupting what had been a strong April performance.

Soft Commodities: -2.81% (Prev: +1.98%)
Cocoa and coffee finally cooled. The outliers of Q2 are still elevated, but momentum cracked this week—hinting that the best of the trend may be behind us.

Equity Indexes: +3.21% (Prev: +4.66%)
Equities remained the standout, though gains moderated. Tech and global indices still provided directional opportunity, especially for systems early to rotate long.

Currencies: -0.15% (Prev: -0.26%)
FX remained quiet. The USD drifted sideways, while other majors failed to generate fresh signals. A waiting game for most FX strategies.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

This week marked a dramatic reversal in contract-level leadership. Natural gas exploded higher, while many recent outperformers faltered. Equity strength remained, but the spotlight shifted from soft commodities to industrials and energy whiplash.

The chart above captures the sharp dispersion across asset classes—an environment that rewarded select exposure and punished overcommitment.

Top Market Gains:

Natural Gas: +17.76% – A violent surge. Natural gas ripped higher after weeks of pain, offering sharp relief to systems still holding exposure. Volatility remains extreme.
DAX / Nasdaq 100 / Nikkei 225 / Russell 2000: +3.80%, +3.43%, +3.27%, +3.26% – Global equity strength broadened. Europe joined the party, while US and Japanese indices continued climbing.
DJIA / S&P 500 / Euro Stoxx 50: +2.94%, +2.90%, +2.86% – Large caps and Europe added stability to equity exposure. These were steady gains, not speculative bursts.
Palladium: +2.27% – A rare bright spot in metals. Palladium rebounded, diverging from the broader pullback in precious and base metals.
Live & Feeder Cattle: +1.52%, +0.88% – Modest, consistent support from livestock. Meat contracts continue to grind upward, though the momentum is slowing.

Biggest Market Declines:

Crude Oil (WTI & Brent): -7.36%, -6.75% – A deep slide. After two weeks of strength, energy markets reversed sharply. Systems with long exposure likely hit stops or pared risk.
Oats / Heating Oil / Cocoa: -5.65%, -5.51%, -5.09% – Soft and energy commodities cracked. Cocoa’s Q2 rally broke sharply—marking a potential regime shift.
Coffee / Sugar / Corn: -4.31%, -5.01%, -3.45% – The commodity unwind extended to the broader softs and grains complex. Coffee gave up recent gains. Corn resumed its retreat.
Silver / Copper / Gasoline RBOB: -3.44%, -3.92%, -3.97% – Industrial commodities joined the pullback. Metal and energy trades faltered together, weakening trend structure.
VIX: -3.82% – A continued unwind in volatility. Calm persisted, closing out short-vol profits and reducing potential for near-term directional trades.

Portfolio Observations

Equities: Still strong, but more balanced. Gains broadened beyond tech into global indices and large caps. Equity exposure remained the bright spot for trend-followers.
Natural Gas: The standout contract. Whiplash-prone but delivered big gains for those who endured the chop.
Soft Commodities: Leadership broke. Cocoa, coffee, and sugar all reversed. Systems heavily weighted in these trades may now face a recalibration.
Energy & Metals: A double fade. Crude oil and metals sank in tandem, sapping momentum from two formerly trending sectors.
Currencies: Mostly muted. The USD firmed slightly, but no major moves materialized. FX systems stayed flat or trimmed.
Volatility: Still falling, though at a slower pace. Short-vol trades are likely done, and new opportunities remain elusive in this calm.

Final Reflections – The Fog Holds, but the Ground Firms

The first week of May didn’t break the quiet, it deepened it. Momentum softened. Signals scattered. And yet, something subtle is taking shape beneath the stillness.

Equities continued to lead, but gains moderated. Softs cracked. Energy reversed. Natural gas roared back to life just as metals lost theirs.

The SG Trend Index nudged higher, trimming April’s damage. But the TTU Trend Barometer slipped to 48%, revealing a cooling of trend conditions—not a broad acceleration.

This wasn’t a breakout week. It was a balancing act. Volatility eased again, offering breathing room while simultaneously choking off fresh opportunity.

We’re not entering a new trend regime. We’re wandering the transition zone where systems recalibrate and signals flicker, half-formed.

The edge isn’t prediction. It’s poise. What matters now isn’t how much you gain but how little you lose while waiting.

Because the fog hasn’t lifted. But for those still standing, still steady—clarity always comes.
And when it does, the prepared will already be in motion.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.