TTU Trend Barometer
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Systematic Investor

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:09 – Overview of the week
05:22 – Update on Rich's Battleship
21:40 – My Trend Following Thesis
37:24 – Q1, Andrew: Trailing vs. initial stop
52:25 – Q2, Nicholas: Do you know any affordable backtesting systems?
56:45 – Q3, Brian: When do you re-establish your full position if volatility collapses
01:21:25 – Industry Performance Update

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:10 – Market recap
04:41 – What has caught Mark’s attention recently?
13:46 – Overview of the week
18:28 – Q1, Brett: Any thoughts on rebalancing based on performance?
30:45 – Trend Following, de-globalisation and the Dark Ages
47:15 – What happened at the LME?
59:18 – Fidelity, Ned Johnson III and the Kaizen philosophy
01:14:29 – Update on performance 

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:45 – Market recap
04:32 – Overview of the week
11:35 – Question, ABE: What are your opinion on roll-harvesting strategies?
21:06 – What causes trends in markets?
43:05 – Is it too late to invest in trend following?
50:22 – Risk mitigation and investor perception of Trend Following
58:42 – Key insights from the Allocator series so far
01:06:51 – Update on performance

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
01:40 – Summary of the week
08:03 – The short squeeze in Nickel this week
14:53 – Q1, Josh: How to find the best parameters for you Trend Following system
31:57 – Q2, William: How do you react following a missed breakout?
37:11 – Q3, ABE: Is it wise to avoid Index-based products and how to trade CTA Index Futures? How do CTAs as an industry, become part of the financial zeitgeist going forward? Have index providers had a role to play in throttling the industry's potential?
45:36 – Q4, FunnyMoney: Are trading stops intra-day or managed at the next day open? Any tips and tricks?
49:25 – What happens if you stop doing trend following research?
57:00 – Tweets from Jerry
01:20:43 – Performance overview
01:21:49 – Thanks for listening

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:15 – Update on markets
05:50 – What has caught attention and review on performance
27:08 – Status on Rob’s book
29:27 – Q1, What might next frontier be that seems silly today, but common sense later? Who's the next David Harding?
34:04 – Q2, Ravi: What are the implications to the markets and the wider global economy?
39:00 – Q3, Zoran: How do you navigate through such events (war in Ukraine) as a systematic investor?
46:00 – Q4, Richard: If trend following ever became overcrowded, could you identify it and would you take any action?
51:55 – Q5, Y:Should traders rely on the experience of past wars/conflicts or is this time different?
55:31 – Q6, Emre: Any advice on rebalancing my assets and portfolio?
01:02:35 – Q7, Gene: How do you and your guests reason about the timing of your trades?
01:08:03 – Q8, Akul: Why not dynamically change the allocations to different speeds of momentum?
01:14:32 – Q9, Zach: Is there a way to add trend following volatility instruments?
01:18:53 – Q10, Carl: How to rebalance between multiple strategies?
01:22:12 – Thank you for listening, and what's coming up

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:49  – Macro recap from Niels
06:40 – Weekly review of performance
16:35 – Thoughts on Niels, Rich & Jerrys’ LinkedIn conversation with Harold De Boer of TransTrend
23:16 – Q1; Frank : How do you see Trend Following strategies fitting into the ESG space?
31:43 – Why we developed the Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report
51:55 – Q2; Steve : What else causes a long-term price trend if endogenous shocks are the initial cause?
01:09:39 – Shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term Trend Following
01:15:11 – The power of Trend Following during this period of heightened uncertainty
01:20:14 – Benchmark performance update
01:22:12 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

You can find Mark’s latest writings here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:02 – Weekly recap from Niels
04:39 – Weekly review of performance
23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?
28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk 
42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?
47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum
01:00:58 – Molecule crisis and just-in-case commodities with ESG unintended consequences
01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to apply the ‘Moscow Rules’
01:15:00 – Benchmark performance update
01:15:52 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
01:16 – Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes
02:36 – Macro recap from Niels
05:29 – Weekly review of returns
09:55 – How the change of tone from central banks affects the markets
18:29 – Trend Following in rising interest rate environment
25:19 – Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio
36:12 – The future of the 60 / 40 portfolio
46:53 – Some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s Allocator Series
52:43 – Why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following
01:01:56 – Benchmark performance update

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
01:44 – Macro recap from Niels
05:24 – Weekly review of performance
11:51 – Jerry & Rich’s thoughts on Howard Mark’s opinion of Trend Following
24:46 – Why exit rules might be harder to create than entry rules
43:45 – Risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio
51:03 – The unpredictability of endogenous outliers
01:10:08 – The old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’
01:13:54 – Benchmark performance update
01:15:01 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

by

Check out our series on Volatility here, and our Global Macro series here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

You can find Mark’s latest writings here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:05 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:36 – Macro recap from Niels
06:22 – Weekly review of performance
15:10 – Q1; Zack : Has there been any research into how systematic investing improves ones performance over discretionary investing?
41:24 – Making predictions on commodities and inflation
50:27 – How Fed policy affects the Trend Following environment
01:04:18 – The re-emergence of longer-term terms
01:13:43 – Benchmark performance update

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
01:19 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:41 – Macro recap from Niels
04:13 – Weekly review of performance
11:14  – Q1 Jonathan: What are the parameters that indicate a high chance of an outlier trade?
17:22  – Q2 James: Do you treat correlated markets as individual markets or group them together?
21:24 – Q3 Adam: One system has a better average performance when looking at the backtest, and another system has a worse average performance in its backtest while having a large outlier, making its overall returns higher. Which system is better?
24:14 – Q4 Irving: How can I trade a 100 markets as an individual investor with capital limitations?
29:07 – Q5 James: How do you approach correlation risk management? 
32:39 – The differences between Trend Following and the more common term ‘Trend Trading’
38:24 – Expanding on the theme of hunting for outliers, and how Jean Phillipe Bouchard’s research was useful in understanding the nature of outliers
01:01:53 – Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis
01:22:03 – What importance does it have that we’re changing the narrative around Trend Following?
01:25:32 – Benchmark performance update

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:24 – A huge thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
04:47 – Macro recap from Niels
08:17 – Weekly review of returns
11:01 – How has your new approach been working out, Rob?
19:33 – Q1 John: How should I approach risk-per-contract?
27:41 – Q2 Patrick: What is your opinion on investing a fixed percentage of free-cash balance?
34:30 – Q3 Frederick: Do professional Trend Followers pyramid positions?
46:24 – Q4 Michael: Which full-size contract would you say is a ‘must-have’ in your portfolio?
01:01:19 – Q5 Rene: When it comes to trading CFDs, how can I deal with changing transaction fee percentages?
01:09:55 – Q6 Michael: Do you have any advice for a 34-year old who wants to enter the managed futures industry?  Has Rob ever considered starting his own fund?
01:15:52 – Q7 James: How far back should we look when measuring correlations?
01:23:27 – Benchmark performance update