TTU Trend Barometer
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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:23 – Key Events from this week
11:15 – Industry performance update
16:25 – Q1, Matthew: The potential risks for trend funds in a global reset event?
25:18 – Research paper from UBS about CTAs and quant strategies
39:55 – Digging into the global fixed income markets
44:44 – Strong US Dollar and intervention in the Yen market
49:29 – Is the panic yet to come?
55:02 – Closure and dealing with uncertainty
01:03:15 – Thanks for listening

by Leave a Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:52 – Key takeaways from the week?
15:35 – What does the future hold for interest rates and inflation?
22:52 – Industry performance update
25:52 – Q1, Joakim: Does dynamic optimisation in itself make more markets tradable?
32:21 – Q1, Follow-up: About adding “non-tradable” markets
35:39 – Q2, Kristen: Futures markets and Rob’s classification approach 
43:15 – Q3, Kristoffer: How to treat CTAs? And deciding between allocating to investment
grade corporate bonds or high yield bonds
49:46 – Q4, Elie: Book recommendations for relevant statistical concepts + why not build a trend following portfolio of single stocks which are optimized for low correlation?
57:15 – Q4, Follow-up: About determining distance in a continuous MA crossover system
01:02:11: – Q5, Douggie: What is the capacity of a strategy?
01:09:04 – Q6, Adam: About running multiple different systems together and splitting risk
01:13:17 – Q7, Michael: What’s behind Rob’s low trailing vol?
01:14:16 – Q8, “Toby” (Rob): Can you (Rob) explain your new book?
01:21:39 – Coming up Next Week

by 1 Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:26 – The stark warning from Niall Ferguson
07:01 – What happened this week?
10:35 – Industry performance update
12:47 – Q1, Irwin: Turtle trading and the use of ATR for position sizing
23:19 – The relationship between trailing stop and volatility
32:45 – Simplicity and sticking to your model
39:32 – Is the 60/40 portfolio dying?
53:31 – The principle of return stacking
01:04:52 – Thanks for listening

by 1 Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:01 – Summary of the week
09:44 – Industry performance update
11:46 – Reflecting on the month of August
16:13 – Alan’s perspective on the Cliff Asness article
28:01 – The undisputed benefits of Trend Following
38:00 – Key takeaways from Jackson Hole
46:00 – Comment from BIS
49:45 – Are we leaving the 2% inflation target?
53:54 – Lessons from the Volcker tightening cycle
01:00:20 – Latest piece from Jeremy Grantham
01:04:23 – Thanks for listening

by 2 Comments

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:51 – Summary of the week
08:35 – Industry performance update
12:21 – Discussion about CTA/Managed futures replication strategies
26:19 – Aligning incentives as a manager
33:28 – Aspect article in Hedge Fund Journal
46:47 – Article by Cliff Asness on Pure Trend Following
51:33 – Crisis Alpha vs the Perfect Portfolio
01:03:40 – Article by Morgan Housel on following Core Principles
01:11:15 – Confidence vs. Ability
01:14:33 – Coming up next week

by Leave a Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:22 – Highlights from this week?
13:36 – Industry performance update
16:07 – AQR's latest article on managed futures
27:56 – The dual mandate and volatility “targeting”
37:55 – The private equity issue and innovation in Trend Following
43:48 – FT Article from Goldman Sachs about inflation and divergence
49:25 – How turning points impact your overall TF returns
53:17 – The 70 percent rule…and why it works for Trend Followers
56:03 – Hedgehogs vs. Foxes and drought in market liquidity
01:02:30 – Trend following vs. Momentum…can you tell the difference?
01:03:55 – “Entrepreneurs of errors”
01:06:01 – Supply, Command and End-user of commodities
01:09:02 – Thanks for listening

by Leave a Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:36 – Review of the market action post CPI data
07:27 – Industry performance update
11:35 – Q1, Gareth: Emphasising recent performance vs. over optimisation
21:13 – Q2, Antonio: Why not use a smaller sample size?
41:45 – What does warehousing risk mean?
50:52 – Tails, you win – Analysis of Morgan Housel article
56:50 – Top 3 things that matter the most in Trend Following
01:05:58 – Thanks for listening

by Leave a Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:02 – What happened this week?
14:20 – Trend Following update of the week
16:55 – Replicating vs. hiring managers
22:30 – Reflecting on the past months market reversals
40:36 – Why is Trend Following performing well at the moment?
48:06 – Discussing Edward Chancellor’s interview
53:06 – Zoltan Pozsar’s article on war and interest rates
58:56 – Bridgewater article on inflation and conversation with Bilal Hafeez
01:06:45 – Thanks for listening

by Leave a Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:02 – Market overview
03:52 – Major events of the month
16:00 – The importance of narratives
19:16 – How Jerry handles equities
22:39 – Q1, Michael: How does Jerry enter a new trade after he exited his first?
25:55 – Q2, Caleb: Backtesting using continuous futures contracts
30:02 – Q3, Adam: How to use stop losses and equities inclusion
36:09 – Jerry's big reveal: “CTAs focus too much on diversification and correlation…”
45:42 – Tweet 1: Improving equity risk concentration
50:53 – Tweet 2: Diversification – a free lunch
53:01 – Tweet 3: Predictable vs. unpredictable inflation
56:55 – Tweet 4: Tractors picking out sports cars from ditches
58:57 – Tweet 5: Doing what you want is what people actually want
01:02:09 – Tweet 6: Non normal world is uncapped
01:05:01 – Replicating CTA performance at little cost…Andrew Beer style
01:21:05 – Industry performance update

by Leave a Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:43 – Recap of the major events from this week?
09:43 – Industry performance update
12:40 – Q1, Alp: How to managing Systemic Risks
32:40 – Q2, Algernond: Portfolio construction using Trend Following funds
41:05 – A global macro binary world and its impact on Trend Following
53:13 – Revival of accepting price action when it comes to investment process
01:01:18 – Moving beyond the Greenspan Put
01:04:39 – Thanks for listening

by Leave a Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:03 – Update on recent market and economic news
08:36 – Industry Performance update
10:28 – Q1, Bruno: Why does Trend Following work?
22:57 – Q2, Elie: Doing Trend Following on Trend Following 
29:50 – Q3, Adam: How to calculate leverage for a CTA
35:43 – Q4, Mark: Complicating your system with stops & views on volatility targeting.
54:51 – Trading an ensemble of systems vs. a single system
58:44 – Using the same systems for a diversified portolio
01:06:12 – Dealing with the psychological challenges of drawdowns
01:13:22 – Comments on whether Vol or TF strategies may be best for a comming Recession
01:22:01 – Thanks for listening

by Leave a Comment

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter. Read Return of the Phillips Curve & Bridgewater Paper.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
01:58 – Summary of the week
07:49 – Industry performance update
10:50 – Q1, Matthijs: Using return stacking in portfolio construction
26:38 – Q2, Adding CPPI on top of Trend Following & using options
38:12 – Increasing uncertainty in the economy
56:13 – Building portfolios for different regimes
01:05:46 – Thanks for listening

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