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Systematic Investor

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Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the episode and systematic investing mindset
01:27 – Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises
03:13 – Why this crisis feels different from previous ones
04:24 – Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences
06:16 – AI, technology, and the changing global landscape
10:58 – Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs
12:37 – Market environment and trend following conditions
16:02 – CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 2026
21:11 – Traditional markets vs systematic strategies
22:39 – Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies
25:48 – CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance
32:42 – Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction
39:40 – Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading
52:21 – QIS strategies and the illusion of beta
57:43 – Structural challenges in QIS products
01:03:12 – Index construction, research, and innovation constraints
01:08:47 – Fees, transparency, and real investor costs
01:12:41 – Product evolution and the future of systematic investing

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Harry on LinkedIn.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction and episode framing
01:38 – Market backdrop and Q1 volatility
07:29 – Trend following performance through Q1
09:36 – Diversification vs equities and bonds
11:21 – Dispersion across managers explained
14:32 – Trend vs non trend strategies
18:40 – A month that tested every component of trend
21:17 – Optimal market mix and research insights
30:00 – Macro factors and what trend captures
35:57 – Portable alpha and cash efficiency
42:23 – Risks in portable alpha construction
49:04 – Drawdowns and investor behavior
53:37 – Why trend recovers after shocks
01:00:51 – Measuring alpha in macro strategies
01:06:51 – Geopolitics and future opportunities

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the series
01:19 – What is on the radar: markets and recent developments
01:19 – The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning
04:12 – Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes
06:51 – Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly
09:07 – Inflation narrative vs risk off reality
14:13 – Bond equity correlation breaking down
17:29 – Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty
24:58 – Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints
27:39 – Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic
37:23 – Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations
41:30 – Excess volatility and what really drives markets
49:36 – Trend vs value vs noise traders explained
56:34 – Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01 – Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop
01:03 – 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty
03:04 – Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns
08:34 – Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets
11:17 – Media narratives vs actual CTA performance
14:03 – Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility
18:08 – Trend following performance and positioning update
27:06 – Do options markets impact trend following models
38:28 – Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies
48:46 – Can AI reshape systematic research workflows
55:23 – Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns
01:02:19 – Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on X.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
02:08 – Oil market shock and the structural setup behind the spike
06:10 – Why calm markets can hide explosive potential
11:47 – How oil shocks ripple through inflation and the global economy
15:29 – Why trend followers focus on process, not predictions
22:15 – A changing regime that may favor trend following
24:43 – The research behind The Fractals of Finance
25:25 – Market memory and the meaning of the Hurst exponent
31:22 – Why trends are structural rather than random patterns
36:25 – Fat tails and why extreme market moves are far more common than expected
41:12 – Divergent vs convergent market participants
45:29 – The hidden risks in traditional volatility targeting
49:33 – Phase transitions and regime shifts in markets
55:33 – Why trend following aligns with market structure
59:02 – Oil shocks, inflation risks, and the next potential market regime

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives
03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices
10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies
15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio
23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets
25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference
37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed
46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift
50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios
58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices
01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark?

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on X.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 Intro to the Systematic Investor Series
00:23 Performance check: CTAs strong, trend tailwinds
03:13 Range-bound indices, but big dispersion and rotation
03:45 Why options pin the index: dealer flows and vol compression
05:42 Dispersion mechanics: idiosyncratic risk, falling correlation
07:32 Rotation as a topping process: leaders fade, defensives rise
09:54 OPEX and quarterly expiries: why timing windows matter
11:56 The March support effect, then weaker flows into April
17:02 AI narrative shock: anxiety, backlash, and policy consequences
22:32 Populism versus deflation stories: why inflation returns
32:43 Gold outlook: secular bull, but expect two-sided volatility
45:45 Rates as “tectonic plates”: vol compressed now, release later
50:23 Midterms, incentives, and the fight for control
57:42 Liquidity loop: markets stop rising, collateral stops expanding

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction & market check-in
02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities
04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess
07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows
10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing
13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets
15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters
21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking)
31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained
41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt machine
44:51 – Inflation, asset bubbles & fiscal theory
56:45 – Machine learning, regime shifts & why trend following survives

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Andrew on X.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introducing the Systematic Investor series
01:17 – AI disruption and systematic investing
06:52 – The shifting perception of US risk
09:21 – Winter Olympics and market metaphors
12:59 – Hedge funds versus private equity
19:23 – 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation
22:17 – Why CTAs did not fully capture gold
29:48 – Short term versus long term trend models
35:27 – Letting risk run versus investor palatability
44:43 – The problem with liquid alternatives
51:21 – Product design versus fiduciary duty
59:06 – QIS, innovation and investor sophistication
01:04:41 – Model risk and the myth of risk premia
01:10:51 – Hopes for a trending year ahead

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Rob on LinkedIn.

Read Man Group's Paper.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
03:56 – Freaky Friday in precious metals
04:29 – How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework
10:25 – When volatility forces position reduction
12:38 – Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets
16:25 – Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse
22:28 – Dislocations across assets beyond metals
24:54 – Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions
31:33 – Discretionary versus systematic decision making
34:03 – Trend barometer and market breadth update
37:34 – Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL
41:18 – Correlation versus volatility predictability
45:13 – MAN Group paper on market selection
58:36 – What investors really want from trend following

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Read Katy Kaminski's paper and the Meketa paper.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
00:39 – Weather disruptions and market perspective
02:31 – Precious metals and extreme commodity moves
04:28 – Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts
07:43 – Replication versus full CTA diversification
09:47 – Liquidity differences across metals
12:03 – Metals leading trend performance in 2026
15:01 – Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits
20:13 – Media attention and the return of trend following
23:29 – Research insights on speed and dispersion
31:44 – Trend speed and timing tradeoffs
40:59 – Market concentration and narrow universes
43:19 – Volatility estimation as a hidden driver
50:41 – Crisis alpha and regime change
59:53 – Geopolitical risk and future research themes

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Read Yoav's Eras Tour paper.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction and series context
01:08 – Inflation back on the radar
02:38 – Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives
06:56 – Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation
08:52 – Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves
10:48 – Trend performance and early 2026 conditions
11:30 – Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends
17:26 – The all weather portfolio problem
18:18 – Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns
22:39 – Commodity trend as a defensive building block
27:01 – Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead
30:04 – What commodity trend really means
33:35 – Institutional resistance to commodities
43:51 – Allocation stability versus macro forecasting
45:23 – Fixed income trends, carry, and autocorrelation