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Trend Following: Is it for you?
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Systematic Investor

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Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction: Preparing for the unpredictable
00:36 – Entering a VUCA world: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity
02:00 – “Uncharted territory” in markets and beyond
05:30 – Central banks, leadership changes, and policy uncertainty
07:16 – Oil markets, OPEC shifts, and geopolitical tension
10:16 – Trend-following performance update and market context
14:06 – Reverse engineering CTAs and the role of AI
18:42 – Replication strategies vs. true alpha
22:41 – Trend-following performance metrics (April update)
24:43 – Supply shocks and why they’re harder to manage
28:53 – Are markets underreacting to geopolitical risk?
31:53 – Information overload, ambiguity, and trend persistence
34:54 – Why more data doesn’t mean better decisions
38:34 – Government intervention vs. market-driven trends
40:30 – Pandemic policies and unintended inflation
43:00 – New research: hedge fund strategies vs. volatility regimes
47:16 – Why managed futures stand out as diversifiers
51:11 – Narrative vs. data in investment decisions
55:36 – AI, sentiment analysis, and the future of models
58:46 – Simplicity vs. complexity in strategy design
01:00:49 – Bundling vs. unbundling investment strategies
01:03:18 – Momentum crashes and new research directions

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:01 – Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged
00:00:35 – Niels and Cem reconnect and set the stage
00:01:51 – Truth, narratives and the blurring of reality
00:04:15 – Fed independence, politics and credibility
00:07:45 – The rise of QIS and demand for alternative strategies
00:12:52 – Trend following update and current market performance
00:15:23 – Framing the disconnect between markets and reality
00:20:09 – Liquidity, market rallies and strategic positioning
00:25:08 – Are markets being actively managed
00:34:51 – The real geopolitical battle and the role of China
00:40:32 – What investors may be underpricing
00:52:55 – Why markets can rise despite growing risks
00:55:56 – Treasury demand, intervention and future policy paths
00:58:04 – Inflation, debt monetization and long term outlook
01:02:16 – AI, deflation and the political response

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Rob on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro & current market backdrop
04:30 – Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing
10:00 – Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension
13:30 – ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles
17:00 – Trend following performance update and April results
20:30 – Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown
25:00 – Why slow trend signals outperformed
27:30 – How to evaluate large CTA managers
31:00 – Where PhDs add value in systematic investing
43:00 – Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction
52:00 – Return stacking and diversifying equities
01:06:30 – Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies
01:18:00 – Final thoughts and wrap-up

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Andrew on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the episode and systematic investing mindset
01:27 – Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises
03:13 – Why this crisis feels different from previous ones
04:24 – Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences
06:16 – AI, technology, and the changing global landscape
10:58 – Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs
12:37 – Market environment and trend following conditions
16:02 – CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 2026
21:11 – Traditional markets vs systematic strategies
22:39 – Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies
25:48 – CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance
32:42 – Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction
39:40 – Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading
52:21 – QIS strategies and the illusion of beta
57:43 – Structural challenges in QIS products
01:03:12 – Index construction, research, and innovation constraints
01:08:47 – Fees, transparency, and real investor costs
01:12:41 – Product evolution and the future of systematic investing

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Harry on LinkedIn.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction and episode framing
01:38 – Market backdrop and Q1 volatility
07:29 – Trend following performance through Q1
09:36 – Diversification vs equities and bonds
11:21 – Dispersion across managers explained
14:32 – Trend vs non trend strategies
18:40 – A month that tested every component of trend
21:17 – Optimal market mix and research insights
30:00 – Macro factors and what trend captures
35:57 – Portable alpha and cash efficiency
42:23 – Risks in portable alpha construction
49:04 – Drawdowns and investor behavior
53:37 – Why trend recovers after shocks
01:00:51 – Measuring alpha in macro strategies
01:06:51 – Geopolitics and future opportunities

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the series
01:19 – What is on the radar: markets and recent developments
01:19 – The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning
04:12 – Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes
06:51 – Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly
09:07 – Inflation narrative vs risk off reality
14:13 – Bond equity correlation breaking down
17:29 – Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty
24:58 – Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints
27:39 – Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic
37:23 – Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations
41:30 – Excess volatility and what really drives markets
49:36 – Trend vs value vs noise traders explained
56:34 – Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01 – Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop
01:03 – 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty
03:04 – Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns
08:34 – Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets
11:17 – Media narratives vs actual CTA performance
14:03 – Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility
18:08 – Trend following performance and positioning update
27:06 – Do options markets impact trend following models
38:28 – Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies
48:46 – Can AI reshape systematic research workflows
55:23 – Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns
01:02:19 – Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on X.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
02:08 – Oil market shock and the structural setup behind the spike
06:10 – Why calm markets can hide explosive potential
11:47 – How oil shocks ripple through inflation and the global economy
15:29 – Why trend followers focus on process, not predictions
22:15 – A changing regime that may favor trend following
24:43 – The research behind The Fractals of Finance
25:25 – Market memory and the meaning of the Hurst exponent
31:22 – Why trends are structural rather than random patterns
36:25 – Fat tails and why extreme market moves are far more common than expected
41:12 – Divergent vs convergent market participants
45:29 – The hidden risks in traditional volatility targeting
49:33 – Phase transitions and regime shifts in markets
55:33 – Why trend following aligns with market structure
59:02 – Oil shocks, inflation risks, and the next potential market regime

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives
03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices
10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies
15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio
23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets
25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference
37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed
46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift
50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios
58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices
01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark?

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on X.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 Intro to the Systematic Investor Series
00:23 Performance check: CTAs strong, trend tailwinds
03:13 Range-bound indices, but big dispersion and rotation
03:45 Why options pin the index: dealer flows and vol compression
05:42 Dispersion mechanics: idiosyncratic risk, falling correlation
07:32 Rotation as a topping process: leaders fade, defensives rise
09:54 OPEX and quarterly expiries: why timing windows matter
11:56 The March support effect, then weaker flows into April
17:02 AI narrative shock: anxiety, backlash, and policy consequences
22:32 Populism versus deflation stories: why inflation returns
32:43 Gold outlook: secular bull, but expect two-sided volatility
45:45 Rates as “tectonic plates”: vol compressed now, release later
50:23 Midterms, incentives, and the fight for control
57:42 Liquidity loop: markets stop rising, collateral stops expanding

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction & market check-in
02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities
04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess
07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows
10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing
13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets
15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters
21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking)
31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained
41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt machine
44:51 – Inflation, asset bubbles & fiscal theory
56:45 – Machine learning, regime shifts & why trend following survives

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Andrew on X.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introducing the Systematic Investor series
01:17 – AI disruption and systematic investing
06:52 – The shifting perception of US risk
09:21 – Winter Olympics and market metaphors
12:59 – Hedge funds versus private equity
19:23 – 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation
22:17 – Why CTAs did not fully capture gold
29:48 – Short term versus long term trend models
35:27 – Letting risk run versus investor palatability
44:43 – The problem with liquid alternatives
51:21 – Product design versus fiduciary duty
59:06 – QIS, innovation and investor sophistication
01:04:41 – Model risk and the myth of risk premia
01:10:51 – Hopes for a trending year ahead