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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction and catching up from Boston
02:00 – Life without economic data and what markets really need
04:20 – Price as the only truth and the limits of official data
05:45 – CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend
08:20 – AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity
10:30 – Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change
12:40 – Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds
15:10 – Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year
20:00 – Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe
24:10 – Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently
26:20 – Liberation Day: three consecutive shock days and what CTAs learned
33:40 – Economic trend, price trend and the blurry line with global macro
39:00 – Crisis alpha, convexity and when fundamentals stop mattering
44:50 – The rise of alternatives and why “core” portfolios are changing
48:20 – How the industry can tap private wealth and model portfolios
52:00 – Trend in target retirement funds and the sequence of returns problem
56:40 – Looking ahead, volatility forecasting and next week’s guest
58:25 – Wrap up, disclosures and final reflections