TTU Trend Barometer
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Trend Following: Is it for you?
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Ideas Lab

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Why short sellers start with the real business: customers, competitors, and market size
01:41 – Introducing Mark Roberts, Off Wall Street, Enron, and the book
03:35 – An unconventional path: French literature, skepticism, and early life choices
07:40 – The first “short sale”: selling a failing steel business and learning risk firsthand
11:10 – Fidelity, Peter Lynch, and the origins of independent short research
16:48 – Founding Off Wall Street and the first major short thesis (TCBY)
27:34 – How short ideas are built, tested, and abandoned without sunk-cost bias
30:56 – Business models vs accounting: why accounting issues are symptoms, not causes
40:11 – Timing, crowd psychology, and surviving being early on a short
47:08 – Why short selling is dangerous for individuals and crowded trades fail
52:44 – Markets today vs the dot-com era, passive flows, and portfolio construction

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening remarks and framing the law of one price
01:42 – Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas
03:44 – From pre med to behavioral economics
08:15 – Mental accounting and how people really treat money
10:45 – Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control
15:39 – Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality
17:11 – Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail
22:07 – Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion
25:18 – The winner’s curse and common value auctions
30:01 – Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding
33:44 – The law of one price and market mispricing
36:50 – Limits to arbitrage and hidden risks
39:32 – Why mispricing persists even without confusion
43:26 – Why behavioral economics stays outside textbooks
46:53 – What makes decisions difficult and why it matters

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Kevin on Substack & Read his Book.

Follow Aubrie on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable
00:38 – Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing
01:34 – Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today’s focus on AGI
02:59 – Aubrie’s background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens
06:04 – Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy
07:21 – AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity
10:41 – The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away
12:58 – Blocker 1: energy constraints and the race for firm power
15:17 – Where investment opportunities emerge in power and grid resilience
17:43 – Blocker 2: foundational industry data gaps and Moravec’s paradox
22:00 – Skilled trades as a bottleneck and a long term opportunity
24:34 – Blocker 3: agent to human coordination and walled gardens
29:04 – Early agent marketplaces and trust mechanisms
34:41 – The Aquarius Economy as a framework for future societal structure
42:09 – Outlier groups, human agency and implications for investors

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Kevin on Substack & Read his Book.

Follow Mike on X and read his book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and setup
00:00:49 – Disclaimer and show introduction
00:01:45 – The premise: land as humanity’s oldest asset
00:04:18 – Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong’s model
00:09:01 – Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance
00:18:17 – Why technology can’t replace geography
00:23:29 – Land as collateral and the rise of mortgage finance
00:28:31 – Lazy banking and the limits of innovation
00:35:17 – Dead capital, human potential, and access to credit
00:39:37 – China’s land machine and the politics of stasis
00:46:37 – Evergrande, reallocation, and what “collapse” really means
00:52:28 – Singapore’s experiment: broad ownership, stable prices
00:58:17 – Can others follow Singapore’s path?
00:59:33 – Closing reflection

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Kevin on Substack & Read his Book.

Follow Zoe on Twitter and read her book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:11 – Introduction to Zoe Liu
04:15 – How U.S tariffs impact shipping costs and the deficit with China
17:27 – What is China actually doing with their earned dollars?
27:52 – Are FX entrusted loans reinforcing the dollar based trading system?
36:07 – What are stable coins and why are China worried about them?
42:31 – The second level of threat of stable coins
49:08 – How would a Hong Kong dollar backed stable coin look like?
54:37 – Are stable coins actually stable in Hong Kong or China?

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Kevin on Substack & Read his Book.

Follow Sandra on LinkedIn and read her book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 – Introduction to Sandra Matz
08:22 – How data is a window into our psychology
12:13 – What is the “right” benchmark?
14:12 – How algorithms learn to understand who you are
19:11 – Do algorithms care about your feelings?
22:16 – The “basic bitch” effect
25:10 – Computers can learn your personality from a picture of your face
32:01 – How the power of algorithms can be used in a positive way
40:17 – A framework for avoiding the negatives of collecting personal data
44:06 – Solving the complex challenges of cookies (not the ones you eat)
51:14 – The rise of data unions and cooperatives
57:01 – How Matz protects her own data

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Kevin on Substack & Read his Book.

Follow Diane on X and read her book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 – Introduction to Diane Coyle
03:55 – How did the current systems of national accounts came to be?
06:55 – Why the national statistics doesn't add up
11:22 – The underlying problems of GDP
18:42 – How software pose a problem for measuring GDP and economic activity
23:25 – The challenges of cloud computing
26:39 – What is disintermediation and why is it a problem for economic statistics?
33:35 – The importance of considering time as a variable in economic statistics
38:38 – How technological innovations can mess up our ability to measure GDP
40:45 – Coyle's framework for improving how we measure GDP
46:34 – We are thinking about measuring national capital in the wrong way
48:48 – How human capital is measured53:13 – What kind of statistics does Coyle value when trying to gauge the economy

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Follow Koen on LinkedIn.

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Learn more about their book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 – Welcoming back Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
04:05 – What is multi globalization and how does it apply to today's global economy?
11:57 – Is it safe for European companies to rely on U.S tech?
19:01 – The future of Europe
24:52 – The forces driving gold
29:04 – Investing in the physical metals vs investing in the miners
31:08 – How climate changes impacts raw materials like copper
37:36 – How the energy transition impacts investor sentiment
42:32 – When will AI make an impact on productivity?
48:44 – Start investing in yourself

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Kevin on Substack & Read his Book.

Follow Kenneth on X and read his book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:01 – Introduction to Kenneth Rogoff
03:04 – What is at stake if the dollar loses its dominance?
09:13 – How Trump tariffs are destroying the dollar
13:27 – What are the alternatives to the dollar dominance?
19:18 – How increased military spending could strengthen the European currencies
27:19 – The Chinese Yuan is evolving
36:01 – The potential for alternative stable coins
43:25 – The perks of currency dominance
44:26 – Why dollar dominance gives us lower rates
52:05 – Are we entering a new era of currencies?
54:55 – What form will the financial repression take?
59:24 – How Rogoff would deal with the U.S debt
01:03:21 – We are gambling on rates
01:06:31 – Its time for the profession to wake up

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Kevin on Substack & Read his Book.

Follow Daryl on X and read her book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 – Introduction to Daryl Fairweather
07:30 – Choosing games and assessing probabilities
13:14 – How do you know if your boss is a jerk?
14:03 – Why it is important to be aware of how you present your resumé
16:23 – What happens when algorithms take over the hiring process
17:19 – Should you de-emphasize your resume if you are overqualified for a job?
19:22 – A real life example of recency bias
22:34 – How to minimize recency bias when designing systems
24:42 – How to master the promotion process through backward induction
28:26 – The key steps to get promoted and get higher salaries
29:40 – Fairweather's approach to negotiating salaries
36:46 – Why men and women should handle workplace conflicts differently
39:27 – How Fairweather would solve the challenges of the housing market
43:21 – Reflecting on the new Californian housing laws
47:10 – What was Fairweather's favorite chapter in her book?
47:50 – What did she exclude from the book and why?
48:23 – What is the target audience for the book?
49:28 – Why is the book called “Hate the Game”?

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Kevin on Substack & Read his Book.

Learn more about Leah on her website and read her book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 – Introduction to Leah Rose Downey
08:36 – A comic flimsy ground
10:34 – Examples of the tension between legislators and Fed
15:21 – Legislators have become a weak economic muscle
19:32 – The complexity of tax policy
25:19 – A better way to manage a central bank
32:08 – The monetary system is like a set of pipes
34:00 – Why efficiency is not always the top value
37:42 – The core philosophy behind Downey's project
40:42 – Why there is a need for a rechartering discussion
44:34 – Should the US economic system be more democratic?
50:20 – “To sustain a democracy over time, the future must be uncertain”
53:55 – Investors should take democratic politics more seriously

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Kevin on Substack & Read his Book.

Follow Edward on X and read his book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 – Introduction to Edward Fishman
08:24 – The failures of economic warfare
14:04 – What Stuart Levy can teach us about economic
19:26 – Who even want to work at banks nowadays?
22:10 – The most successful sanction in modern times
27:02 – The dangers of sanctions, export controls and tarifs
32:56 – What is a denial order and why is it such a powerful tool?
37:52 – What is the entity list and what is it used for?
38:55 – Technology chokepoints and the challenges they pose
46:08 – The secret to the American success
48:29 – Is the price cap on Russian oil actually working as intended?
53:31 – The oil market is changing
55:17 – Where is the global economy heading?