TTU Trend Barometer
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Trend Following: Is it for you?
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Global Macro

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:39 – Introduction to Frances Donald
06:39 – What caused a pivot from the central banks?
13:10 – Why were they wrong about their forecast?
20:43 – Where are the weak spots?
23:58 – Does recession calls even matter?
27:34 – Frances' outlook for the economy
39:21 – Are we heading into a structural shift?
51:04 – Will things change in the next administration?
53:33 – Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?
59:35 – Advice for the other investors
01:01:15 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 – Looking back on our last conversation
07:55 – Are markets looking too good to be true?
14:04 – The importance of long volatility and owning convexity
24:41 – Why is volatility compression normalizing?
31:35 – A system under pressure
38:48 – How is now different to the 1970's?
42:09 – Can deglobalization be a good thing?
53:00 – Where is the debt problem going?
01:04:25 – Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin
01:09:08 – How Dredge is carrying out volatility selling

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 – Introduction to Gregory Peters
05:15 – What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?
06:28 – Peters' perspective on the state of global macro
11:44 – Peters' response to the inverted curve
15:30 – Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?
19:36 – Japanese investors in a tough spot
22:11 – Financial repression and domestic bias
24:11 – The yield is destiny
27:28 – What range are we operating in?
28:43 – Will inflation be stickier than we expect?
33:03 – The impact of a changing globalization
35:42 – Analyzing the poor productivity numbers
38:05 – The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy
42:54 – China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio
44:27 – Opportunities in emerging markets
46:47 – Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function
49:13 – How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?
51:29 – The possibilities of recession
56:19 – Advice for other investors
57:59 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 – Introduction to Dario Perkins
07:18 – Why is this cycle so different?
12:27 – Where are we now?
17:40 – Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?
23:16 – How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?
26:37 – A sticky inflation
28:35 – Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?
32:52 – A concern for real-estate?
38:03 – What is the next decade going to look like?
46:21 – Are central bankers bluffing?
51:15 – Will there be limits to physical policy?
59:11 – The outlook for asset allocation and currencies
01:03:42 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 – Introduction to Ed Yardini
07:07 – Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?
11:06 – What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?
14:43 – Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?
19:18 – Are we spiralling into a crisis?
25:19 – The outlook for the debt crisis*
29:08 – Will AI save us?
32:22 – Analysing productivity and growth
36:05 – Learning from history – what is different this time?
41:40 – The baby boom generation – inflationary or deflationary?
44:06 – China and Japan being deflationary?
45:23 – Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?
47:50 – The outlook for equities
52:14 – The U.S vs the rest
53:32 – Advice for new investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:33 – Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann
04:05 – The global macro perspective
08:13 – The changing relationship between stocks and bonds
12:25 – Structural and cyclical issues
21:35 – Is this inflation different?
28:15 – The lag of structural effects
32:04 – The age of abundance
36:45 – Time to shift back to active management
43:10 – The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy
52:21 – A move away from bonds and how it will affect us
01:00:06 – Does the interest cycle exist?
01:00:52 – The Dynamic Balanced Bear
01:03:21 – Final thoughts

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:36 – Introduction to Helen Thompson
06:31 – Why did she write her book, “Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century”?
10:15 – The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency
17:23 – A longer-term structural challenge?
21:21 – A rebirth of the industrial policy
25:39 – Deglobalization – how real is it?
29:31 – What has caused the roll-back of globalization?
34:13 – When will we see a shift back to disciplined physical policies
37:49 – Is the secular stagnation behind us?
42:06 – Should we expect more frequent spikes in oil prices?
44:25 – The shifting Saudi-US relationship – a potential risk?
48:35 – A challenged dollar?
53:16 – Is this time different?
57:38 – The civil discontent in the U.S.

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 – What does confidence mean to Peter?
04:38 – The feeling of vulnerability
06:19 – Being in the present
07:57 – Understanding the confidence map
12:08 – How to become confident
13:32 – Peter's advice for the younger audience
17:02 – Having confidence is not a constant
17:48 – Learnings from a traumatic experience
21:23 – Map it out
22:33 – Why is sentiment changing so quickly?
28:05 – The generational shift
30:49 – Is crypto the new Woodstock?
36:15 – Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets?
42:57 – When does panic occur?
44:28 – Does it apply to markets as well?
48:34 – Thoughts on the current political situation
56:51 – Addressing major societal problems
02:03:56 – The challenges of fake news and media
02:06:14 – Process – an underrated advantage?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 – Introduction to Chen Zhao
06:19 – Why has the economy been so resilient?
11:20 – The typical electoral cycle?
16:44 – The outlook for inflation
19:27 – Concerns about stagflation – valid or not?
26:07 – Rates going back to zero?
28:48 – Achieving high sustained investment growth
31:01 – The effect of moving towards climate friendly production
32:57 – China – a deflationary force
38:38 – Bond yields – any surprises?
39:29 – Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?
42:07 – Have yields reached their peak?
42:54 – The situation in Europe
45:20 – Back to the 2010s?
46:36 – A global increase in spending?
47:37 – Concerns from a global risk perspective
51:00 – The Japanese economy
52:35 – The outlook for emerging markets
54:45 – Advice for other traders
55:59 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 – Introduction to Peter Berezin
05:35 – The current state of the U.S economy
10:14 – Where is inflation heading?
16:24 – A wrong prediction?
20:23 – How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?
24:39 – How has the economy withstood higher rates?
27:10 – What does Peter's models show us?
31:32 – Challenges in the credit space
33:33 – The implications of high valuations
36:08 – Potential weaknesses in the system
40:45 – Looking outside of the U.S.
44:43 – The outlook for currencies
47:03 – Emerging markets and the geopolitical situation in China
49:43 – How is Asia holding up?
52:08 – Are we going to see changes in the inflation target?
56:21 – The big picture view over the next decade
58:23 – Advice for new investors
59:37 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 – Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave
05:28 – Is the economy starting to crack?
10:40 – When is the recession coming?
13:13 – The outlook for inflation
18:36 – The problem with designification
21:18 – The challenges of Chinese economy
27:56 – Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?
31:31 – Looking beyond the U.S and China
36:12 – An epic boom in emerging markets
40:20 – The structural growth in China
43:28 – Middle East joining forces
46:53 – Dealing with the debt
50:43 – Inverted yield curve and the bond market
54:09 – How will AI affect the economy?
59:22 – Good advice and book recommendations
01:02:00 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 – The big macro picture
14:09 – The debt problem in China
20:39 – The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict
24:57 – Kao's view on supply and demand
31:17 – How does Fed power affect oil?
38:41 – A complicated dynamic
41:54 – Can we actually trust anyone?
45:29 – The shadow banking system and refinancing risk
48:53 – A structural problem
51:59 – Reimagining safe assets
58:27 – Thanks for listening