TTU Trend Barometer
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Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 – Introduction to Dario Perkins
07:18 – Why is this cycle so different?
12:27 – Where are we now?
17:40 – Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?
23:16 – How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?
26:37 – A sticky inflation
28:35 – Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?
32:52 – A concern for real-estate?
38:03 – What is the next decade going to look like?
46:21 – Are central bankers bluffing?
51:15 – Will there be limits to physical policy?
59:11 – The outlook for asset allocation and currencies
01:03:42 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 – Introduction to Ed Yardini
07:07 – Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?
11:06 – What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?
14:43 – Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?
19:18 – Are we spiralling into a crisis?
25:19 – The outlook for the debt crisis*
29:08 – Will AI save us?
32:22 – Analysing productivity and growth
36:05 – Learning from history – what is different this time?
41:40 – The baby boom generation – inflationary or deflationary?
44:06 – China and Japan being deflationary?
45:23 – Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?
47:50 – The outlook for equities
52:14 – The U.S vs the rest
53:32 – Advice for new investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:33 – Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann
04:05 – The global macro perspective
08:13 – The changing relationship between stocks and bonds
12:25 – Structural and cyclical issues
21:35 – Is this inflation different?
28:15 – The lag of structural effects
32:04 – The age of abundance
36:45 – Time to shift back to active management
43:10 – The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy
52:21 – A move away from bonds and how it will affect us
01:00:06 – Does the interest cycle exist?
01:00:52 – The Dynamic Balanced Bear
01:03:21 – Final thoughts

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:36 – Introduction to Helen Thompson
06:31 – Why did she write her book, “Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century”?
10:15 – The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency
17:23 – A longer-term structural challenge?
21:21 – A rebirth of the industrial policy
25:39 – Deglobalization – how real is it?
29:31 – What has caused the roll-back of globalization?
34:13 – When will we see a shift back to disciplined physical policies
37:49 – Is the secular stagnation behind us?
42:06 – Should we expect more frequent spikes in oil prices?
44:25 – The shifting Saudi-US relationship – a potential risk?
48:35 – A challenged dollar?
53:16 – Is this time different?
57:38 – The civil discontent in the U.S.

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 – What does confidence mean to Peter?
04:38 – The feeling of vulnerability
06:19 – Being in the present
07:57 – Understanding the confidence map
12:08 – How to become confident
13:32 – Peter's advice for the younger audience
17:02 – Having confidence is not a constant
17:48 – Learnings from a traumatic experience
21:23 – Map it out
22:33 – Why is sentiment changing so quickly?
28:05 – The generational shift
30:49 – Is crypto the new Woodstock?
36:15 – Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets?
42:57 – When does panic occur?
44:28 – Does it apply to markets as well?
48:34 – Thoughts on the current political situation
56:51 – Addressing major societal problems
02:03:56 – The challenges of fake news and media
02:06:14 – Process – an underrated advantage?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 – Introduction to Chen Zhao
06:19 – Why has the economy been so resilient?
11:20 – The typical electoral cycle?
16:44 – The outlook for inflation
19:27 – Concerns about stagflation – valid or not?
26:07 – Rates going back to zero?
28:48 – Achieving high sustained investment growth
31:01 – The effect of moving towards climate friendly production
32:57 – China – a deflationary force
38:38 – Bond yields – any surprises?
39:29 – Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?
42:07 – Have yields reached their peak?
42:54 – The situation in Europe
45:20 – Back to the 2010s?
46:36 – A global increase in spending?
47:37 – Concerns from a global risk perspective
51:00 – The Japanese economy
52:35 – The outlook for emerging markets
54:45 – Advice for other traders
55:59 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 – Introduction to Peter Berezin
05:35 – The current state of the U.S economy
10:14 – Where is inflation heading?
16:24 – A wrong prediction?
20:23 – How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?
24:39 – How has the economy withstood higher rates?
27:10 – What does Peter's models show us?
31:32 – Challenges in the credit space
33:33 – The implications of high valuations
36:08 – Potential weaknesses in the system
40:45 – Looking outside of the U.S.
44:43 – The outlook for currencies
47:03 – Emerging markets and the geopolitical situation in China
49:43 – How is Asia holding up?
52:08 – Are we going to see changes in the inflation target?
56:21 – The big picture view over the next decade
58:23 – Advice for new investors
59:37 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 – Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave
05:28 – Is the economy starting to crack?
10:40 – When is the recession coming?
13:13 – The outlook for inflation
18:36 – The problem with designification
21:18 – The challenges of Chinese economy
27:56 – Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?
31:31 – Looking beyond the U.S and China
36:12 – An epic boom in emerging markets
40:20 – The structural growth in China
43:28 – Middle East joining forces
46:53 – Dealing with the debt
50:43 – Inverted yield curve and the bond market
54:09 – How will AI affect the economy?
59:22 – Good advice and book recommendations
01:02:00 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 – The big macro picture
14:09 – The debt problem in China
20:39 – The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict
24:57 – Kao's view on supply and demand
31:17 – How does Fed power affect oil?
38:41 – A complicated dynamic
41:54 – Can we actually trust anyone?
45:29 – The shadow banking system and refinancing risk
48:53 – A structural problem
51:59 – Reimagining safe assets
58:27 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 – Introduction to Mika Kastenholz
09:25 – Working with econophysics
10:52 – Finding the perfect size
12:05 – Mika's view on naive sizing
13:19 – The macro perspective
16:27 – Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve
18:46 – A changing environment
21:01 – The impact of post 2008 regulations
23:29 – Hedging the autocallable structures
29:30 – Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage
31:42 – Swing options – a relic of the past?
33:30 – Has the depth of the markets decreased?
35:31 – How does cross margining work today?
36:51 – What happens with a large client trade?
38:59 – Dealing with regulations
42:51 – Are banks too focused on short-term dynamic risk management?
45:48 – What if every bank had the same risk limits?
48:15 – Are the banks aware of network effects?
50:13 – Is the complex systems push overstated?
54:09 – An anomaly that could be exploited?
57:06 – A confused market
59:19 – The outlook for the term premia
01:01:10 – Key takeaways from Niels

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:23 – Introduction to David Rosenberg
08:00 – Rosenberg's research process
11:56 – The importance of historical awareness
25:00 – Disruptions in the demand curve
31:16 – Getting the timing right
43:54 – The longer term trajectory
52:58 – Dealing with high debt levels
57:12 – A shift in the political landscape
01:00:56 – Learning more about global macro
01:05:02 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 – What has happened since our previous conversation?
06:03 – Making sense of the oil market
10:44 – Signs of a put on the oil market
16:38 – The situation with natural gas
25:13 – Has the gas situation been improved?
32:42 – Nuclear energy – is it a viable solution?
46:51 – The outlook for gold
52:51 – The mechanisms of the capital cycles
01:00:45 – The state of metals
01:04:18 – A metal crisis?
01:06:24 – Centralised commodities and rare earths
01:09:53 – Investing in rare earths
01:12:52 – Considerations for owning gold
01:16:58 – Thanks for listening