TTU Trend Barometer
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Trend Following: Is it for you?
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Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:30 – Introduction
03:59 – Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis
06:34 – Can trading be taught?
08:50 – The story behind the trading rules
12:32 – What characterises Eckhardt Trading?
13:44 – How did their perception of risk change over the years?
22:01 – Why they focus on short term trading
27:25 – How they use volatility in their trading
32:49 – Do they utilize other methods than trend following?
34:05 – Why do they avoid trade summary statistics?
40:26 – How they control overfitting and underfitting
45:37 – How they use “the gauntlet” to test systems
49:12 – How many markets do they trade and why?
53:57 – Why they don't trade single stocks
56:28 – Their view on replication strategies
01:05:23 – Evaluating the success of systems
01:08:02 – What are the most important things to avoid when designing trend following systems?
01:08:47 – The future of trend following
01:11:11 – Criticise ideas, not people

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 – Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management
08:27 – Diving deep into their strategy
10:45 – What drives the alpha of the strategy?
15:41 – Understanding your investor base
18:07 – Understanding their correlation
19:31 – Thoughts on including international stocks
24:15 – Do they fully fund their portfolio?
27:52 – How they approach dividends
29:14 – Do they loan out stocks?
30:34 – Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchange?
32:36 – How many names do they have in their portfolio on the long side
33:12 – Dilution vs. concentration
37:15 – The impact of volatility drag
39:43 – Improving the experience of investing
42:01 – A compliment or full portfolio strategy?
45:57 – What are the most important lessons they have learned?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 – Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein
05:52 – How did they learn about trend following?
14:18 – The perfect match?
15:12 – What drove their decision to discretionary overlays?
16:52 – What is causing dispersion in the trend following space?
19:32 – The dangers of overoptimization
23:00 – What are their definition of risk?
27:20 – Are more markets better?
33:21 – Their research process*
37:18 – What is their smallest and least liquid market they trade?
39:01 – How they use synthetic markets in their trading
41:20 – Their considerations about cash equities
43:30 – Why are they trading the VIX index?
46:36 – What is the outlook for trend following?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:16 – Introduction to Tony Kaiser
04:07 – An interesting journey
16:50 – A difficult space for alpha
20:55 – Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?
28:17 – How has trading frequency and systems evolved?
33:15 – Do Kaiser's original models still work today?
45:28 – A shock to the system
49:43 – Where does the low correlation come from?
57:00 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 – Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro
06:18 – What is their edge?
07:57 – What commodities are they trading?
08:46 – Why they don't trade cocoa
11:09 – Acquiring information through networking
13:40 – Why and how do they trade commodity equities
17:15 – What do they consider long-term?
19:38 – Why isn't copper sky rocketing?
22:01 – Their approach to options
22:50 – How they incorporate trend following in their trading
25:24 – Global macro perspectives
27:28 – No hard landing?
28:35 – Is the coal market dying?
31:14 – The outlook of EUAs
35:03 – Do they formulate a price target in their models?
37:08 – A disconnect in the green transition
38:58 – Natural gas market integrating with LNG
40:55 – Their view on the grain markets
43:34 – A quick touch on other markets
44:20 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 – Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot
05:19 – How did they get into investing?
09:43 – Why trend following?
13:55 – Solving the market puzzle
15:36 – How they designed their strategy?
18:46 – The reason for their market selection
24:18 – Why exactly 21 markets?
31:13 – How did they design their system?
39:47 – Why they don't trade hundreds of markets
42:08 – What timeframes and models do they work with?
50:13 – Controlling the heat
55:31 – What is “heat” in a portfolio?
57:26 – How do they manage the heat?
01:00:06 – How they use dynamic position sizing
01:05:00 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 – Introduction to Scott Kerson
08:27 – When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?
13:54 – What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?
20:25 – Why an exclusive focus on commodities?
22:45 – What markets are Kerson trading and why?
24:04 – Where are the hidden gems?
26:31 – Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading
30:37 – Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach
31:26 – A need for long-term?
33:09 – What is the capacity of the markets?
34:28 – What is the total AUM of alternative market CTAs today?
35:30 – Their core research philosophy
37:53 – The key barriers to entry
39:52 – How have they gone through 2023?
41:07 – Is there any market that stand out from the others?
43:16 – The outlook of the alternative markets CTA space
45:36 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 – Introduction to Anant Jatia
06:39 – Anant's experience from working at AQR
08:46 – How did Anant's firm evolve over time?
10:44 – How difficult is High-Frequency Trading?
14:33 – What is their current trading strategy?
17:07 – An example of one of their trades
21:17 – Staying away from the physical side
23:33 – Tracking the market and executing trades
27:18 – Managing the cost of trades
29:58 – How did they get through the Covid19 period?
34:37 – How many markets are they trading?
36:49 – The process of trading copper
38:43 – How do you obtain transportation costs?
40:47 – Achieving the optimal trading efficiency
43:37 – A multi-legged trading strategy
47:34 – Anant's perspective on the Natural Gas markets
50:50 – Putting it all together
54:39 – Building for negative tail events
57:26 – What kind of exposure do they have?
59:17 – Key takeaways
59:58 – Thanks for listening

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Follow Faheem on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 – Introduction to Maia & Faheem
08:48 – What are the most popular return drivers?
11:35 – What is driving carry trading?
15:10 – When does carry trading stop working?
17:23 – Combing strategies for more diversification
20:26 – Why does the volatility carry factor exist in the commodity space?
22:52 – How do they have an advantage over their competitors?
24:40 – What is their core client base?
28:38 – How are they giving their clients an edge?
30:25 – Concerns about the commodity space
32:30 – How they analyze and validate their work
36:23 – A long term strategy
40:01 – How have they evolved over time?
43:20 – A changing landscape?
46:54 – A move towards machine learning and AI
48:59 – Learning from other asset classes
51:36 – An increased interest in non-standard commodity markets

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 – Introduction to the new series
03:28 – Introduction to Mauritz van den Worm and PolarStar Management
09:53 – A deep dive into the South African market
16:26 – What kind of trader is PolarStar Management?
19:55 – Entering and exiting trades
23:37 – How PolarStar Management establishes and analyzes trades
30:53 – How PolarStar uses data
33:39 – Different kinds of maize (corn)
35:07 – How you size a spread within a portfolio
39:39 – The role and importance of storage
45:14 – Adjusting for seasonality
47:06 – Looking back on the last 2 years
49:47 – Why did traders not want European wheat?
55:46 – What happened to the wheat market?
56:58 – How tough is the commodity space?
59:16 – Thanks for listening