TTU Trend Barometer
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Trend Following: Is it for you?
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Systematic Investor

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:32 – What has caught our attention recently?
07:10 – Industry performance update
09:20 – Dont just trend it, curve it
16:33 – The drivers of spread
23:26 – Breaking markets into factors
26:37 – Mastering speed in spread trades
31:39 – Is there too much money in trend?
36:47 – Key insights into FX trading
44:23 – How dealers and market makers approach risk differently
47:28 – The thought provoking fact about the top 5% dealers and market makers
50:23 – The real process of an allocator
56:39 – Using trend as part of a long term strategy
01:01:35 – You should just go play golf
01:04:21 – The tools of trade as an allocator

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on Twitter,

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:58 – ChatGPT5 is on fire
06:04 – The AI revolution could be the end of humanity
14:23 – Industry performance update
19:19 – An overview of what topics this episode will cover
21:23 – The decisions that really matter in trend following
27:10 – The 4 archetypes of trend following
34:05 – Its not about facts, its about objectives
40:09 – 1st debate: Diversification vs. concentration
48:52 – 2nd debate: Absolute momentum vs. cross-sectional momentum
50:21 – 3rd debate: Volatility targeting vs static small bits
54:02 – What trend followers sometimes get wrong about volatility and position sizing
57:48 – 4th debate: Symmetry vs asymmetry
01:02:00 – 5th debate: Speed of execution
01:08:01 – Why your approach to diversification is critical
01:18:36 – Brennan's preferences in market diversification
01:22:52 – Is ChatGPT5 actually a downgrade?
01:25:27 – What is up for next week?

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter,

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:32 – What has caught our attention recently?
08:53 – Dunne's global macro overview
13:31 – Is our understanding of growth and GDP outdated?
17:52 – The Fed is under threat from multiple angles
21:38 – Dunne's impression of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed chairman
26:43 – An odd juxtaposition with hedge fund titans' influences on the Fed
32:35 – Industry performance update
37:30 – Our takeaways from The Wall Street Journal's article on Trend Following
43:35 – Why should investors even consider managed futures in the first place?
45:40 – Has Dunne ever been on the verge of cutting trend?
52:08 – Do long term investors really need diversifiers?

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on LinkedIn,

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:15 – What has caught our attention recently?
09:08 – The tough situation of Fed independence
10:43 – Industry performance update
14:27 – Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance
21:01 – Are we picking up long term inflation trends?
23:04 – 2025 has given us something rare
26:05 – The core problem that trend followers face today
36:42 – The evolution of stablecoins
43:52 – The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted
53:11 – Risk – a feeling or a factor?
58:42 – The seductiveness of complexity
01:01:10 – Key observations from our conversation
01:07:17 – What is up for next week?

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn,

Follow Andrew on X,

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:52 – What has caught our attention recently?
06:11 – Industry performance update
07:44 – Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment
09:32 – Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper
14:51 – The shape is key for managing risk
17:26 – How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies
22:10 – Is there such a thing as a happy “medium” in trading speed?
28:09 – Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets?
33:35 – The structure of an allocator
36:12 – How much tracking error is acceptable in replication?
42:14 – Trend is doing better than people expect
43:49 – The Voldemort of the trend following space
51:02 – Are ultra diversified portfolio merely a party trick?
56:25 – The challenges of slippage and implementation cost
01:03:49 – It all comes down to the predictability of trends
01:06:23 – Let's talk about the data, please
01:09:01 – Common misunderstandings of trend
01:12:12 – What is up for next week?

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on X.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:19 – What has been on our radar recently?
03:30 – Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode!
05:04 – China is taking the long view – and succeeding with it
07:04 – Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth
08:30 – The risk of high stock trading firm concentration
11:01 – Industry performance update
13:33 – Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment?
24:59 – Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment
30:33 – What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event?
32:28 – The impact of tariffs – what do the numbers tell us?
41:21 – Is a firing on the horizon for Powell?
46:53 – Inflation is becoming hard to hedge
56:15 – The Emperor's New Clothes moment
58:05 – Addressing Paul Jones' asset allocation
01:03:35 – Will AI make us all unemployed?
01:10:13 – Is Libertarianism is a bigger threat to the US than Socialism?
01:13:28 – Where are markets heading according to Karsan?
01:28:27 – What is up for next week?

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:48 – What has been on our radar recently?
07:43 – Crazy moves in US copper
09:45 – Industry performance update
14:31 – How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures?
23:01 – Why trend following is struggling at the moment
31:22 – Rebalancing in trend following is key
33:57 – A better alternative trend following?
37:32 – The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry
44:41 – The key variables for understanding regimes
53:21 – Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate
58:16 – Mechanical vs. regression based replication
59:33 – Defining tracking error

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:57 – What has caught our attention recently?
04:38 – Industry performance update
07:38 – Is trend thriving?
09:57 – Dunne's global macro overview
16:33 – A catastrophic year for the dollar
18:12 – Is this time different for trend following drawdowns?
27:26 – The value of long term track records
34:30 – Is trend following flawed?
37:48 – What are investors actually interested in?
44:32 – What is up for next week?

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 – What has caught out attention recently?
01:23 – Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable
02:59 – Fed is rolling back important capital rules
05:22 – What the shipping industry reveals about the economy
07:33 – Industry performance update
16:00 – Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading?
27:24 – Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following
37:03 – Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment?
41:52 – Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different?
52:26 – Why are bond investors contrarian while equity investors extrapolate?
01:01:59 – “What if you missed the best days of a market?”
01:11:53 – Rounding up

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:13 – Introduction and latest updates
07:57 – Trend Following score card
12:38 – Latest paper from R.G. Niederhoffer
26:45 – Latest insights from Quantica Capital
36:55 – Review of Soc Gen's latest report on the state of the CTA Industry
44:52 – The Science and Practice of Trend-following Systems paper by Artur Sepp

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01 – Introduction to Systematic Investing
02:11 – The Impact of AI and Machine Learning on Data Analysis
07:05 – The Impact of AI on Education and Examination Policies
12:06 – Transitioning Perspectives on Democracy and Markets
21:49 – Dynamic Volatility Targeting in Portfolio Management
24:24 – Exploring Volatility and Leverage
29:50 – Understanding Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics
36:29 – Exploring Investment Constraints and Strategies
45:04 – Rethinking Investment Constraints
49:36 – Strategic Allocations and Market Timing
56:11 – Market Dynamics and Trend Following
01:00:09 – The Evolution of Systematic Investing

by

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:13 – Introduction to Systematic Investing
03:55 – The Shift Towards AI in Trading
11:25 – The Rise of Idiosyncratic Trend Following Post-2020
21:42 – The Impact of Recent Market Dynamics
25:39 – The Rise of Retail Trading in Futures
34:09 – The Panama Method of Historical Adjustments
42:32 – Understanding Backtesting and Data Integrity in Trading Models
47:36 – Navigating Capital Constraints in Trend Following
55:14 – Understanding AI in Trading Strategies
01:00:14 – The Challenges of AI in Trading and Strategy Development
01:04:44 – The Impact of AI on Humanity